Las acciones de RTX aumentaron un 4.99% debido a las amenazas de Trump de reemprender las compras de acciones por parte del gobierno. Un aumento volátil en los precios de las acciones se encuentra bajo la presión política.

Summary
• RTX shares surge 4.98% to $194.99, nearing 52-week high of $194.70
• Trump threatens to cut Raytheon's defense contracts over 'business as usual' stance
• RTX rejects $130/share mini-tender offer as 'below-market' deal

Raytheon Technologies (RTX) is experiencing a dramatic intraday rally amid a storm of political and corporate developments. With the stock trading near its 52-week high, the surge follows President Trump’s aggressive warnings against defense industry buybacks and a contentious shareholder offer. The aerospace giant’s shares have surged past key resistance levels, raising questions about the sustainability of the rally and the broader implications for the sector.

Trump's Regulatory Pressure Ignites RTX Volatility
President Trump’s direct threats to cut Raytheon’s government contracts have catalyzed a sharp intraday rally. The commander-in-chief accused RTX of prioritizing shareholder returns over military readiness, demanding an end to stock buybacks and executive pay hikes until the company 'gets its act together.' This rhetoric, coupled with the rejection of a $130/share mini-tender offer (31.7% below recent prices), has created a volatile environment. Traders are interpreting the political pressure as a short-term catalyst for RTX’s stock, which is now trading near its 52-week high despite the company’s $43.5 billion defense revenue in 2024.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Rally as Trump Targets Buybacks
The Aerospace & Defense sector is broadly responding to Trump’s crackdown on corporate buybacks, with Lockheed Martin (LMT) surging 8.32% as the sector leader. RTX’s 4.98% gain aligns with the sector’s defensive positioning amid heightened geopolitical tensions and regulatory scrutiny. However, RTX’s rally is more directly tied to Trump’s specific threats against its operations, whereas LMT’s surge reflects broader sector optimism about increased defense spending and production demands.

Options and ETFs Highlight RTX's Volatility Play
• 200-day MA: $154.33 (well below current price)
• RSI: 60.92 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 3.51 (bullish divergence from signal line)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $194.99 (above upper band of $192.10)

RTX’s technicals suggest a continuation of the rally, with the 52-week high at $194.70 acting as a critical psychological level. The stock’s proximity to its upper Bollinger Band and overbought RSI indicate potential for a pullback, but the bullish MACD and strong volume suggest momentum is intact. For options traders, the most compelling contracts are those with high leverage and moderate delta, such as RTX20260116C195 and RTX20260116C197.5.

• RTX20260116C195 (Call, $195 strike, 1/16 expiration):
- IV: 28.64% (moderate)
- LVR: 47.69% (high leverage)
- Delta: 0.56 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.507 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0447 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: 111,889 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $194.99 → $199.74 → max(0, $199.74 - $195) = $4.74 gain
- This contract offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for a continuation of the rally.

• RTX20260116C197.5 (Call, $197.5 strike, 1/16 expiration):
- IV: 29.01% (moderate)
- LVR: 66.67% (high leverage)
- Delta: 0.449 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.449 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0443 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: 29,690 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $194.99 → $199.74 → max(0, $199.74 - $197.5) = $2.24 gain
- This contract provides aggressive leverage for a smaller price move, suitable for high-conviction bullish bets.

Aggressive bulls may consider RTX20260116C195 into a break above $195, while those seeking higher leverage could target RTX20260116C197.5 if the stock holds above $194.70.

Backtest RTX Stock Performance
The backtest of RTX's performance after a 5% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 52.59%, the 10-Day win rate is 56.18%, and the 30-Day win rate is 62.35%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 4.32%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that RTX can offer decent gains even after the initial surge.

RTX's Rally Faces Crucial Juncture: Watch 52W High and Sector Sentiment
RTX’s intraday surge to $194.99 has brought it perilously close to its 52-week high of $194.70, a level that could trigger a reversal if not decisively breached. The stock’s technicals and Trump’s regulatory threats suggest a volatile near-term outlook, but the rejection of the $130/share mini-tender offer and sector-wide optimism about defense spending provide a floor. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA at $154.33 as a critical support level and watch for a breakdown below $185.48 (30D support). Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin (LMT)’s 8.32% surge underscores the sector’s resilience, offering a benchmark for RTX’s potential trajectory. Aggressive traders may want to target RTX20260116C195 if the stock breaks above $195, but caution is warranted as overbought RSI and stretched Bollinger Bands hint at a possible pullback.