Is Ørsted a Deep-Value Opportunity Amid a 63.6% YTD Share Price Decline?

, a drop that has left many investors scratching their heads. Is this a buying opportunity for the bold, or a warning sign of deeper structural issues? Let's dig into the numbers and fundamentals to separate the noise from the signal.

Valuation Metrics: A Tale of Contradictions

Ørsted's current valuation metrics tell a mixed story. , a figure that dwarfs peers like China Longyuan Power Group . However, this high P/E must be contextualized. Historically, Ørsted's P/E has swung wildly, hitting a negative -103.19 in December 2025 and peaking at 174.75 in 2017. The company's earnings volatility-driven by factors like low wind speeds impacting offshore wind output-has skewed these metrics.

On the other hand, . according to SimplyWall St. Meanwhile, its enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 15.4x appears elevated compared to the sector's 5-year low of 11.1x in 2024 according to Finerva. But here's the twist: the sector's multiples have contracted due to macroeconomic headwinds and policy uncertainties, not necessarily due to Ørsted's operational performance.

Long-Term Fundamentals: A Robust Pipeline Amid Caution

Despite the near-term pain, Ørsted's long-term fundamentals remain compelling. The company has slashed its 2024–2030 investment plan to $30–33 billion-a 25% reduction from prior targets-to strengthen its capital structure. This revised strategy focuses on executing its 8.4 GW offshore wind construction program, which will nearly double its installed capacity. By 2026, , with projects like (913 MW) and Changhua 2b & .

The green hydrogen push is another bright spot. Ørsted is building a facility on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to US Orsted. Its , a collaboration with existing Texas and Louisiana assets, further cements its leadership in the clean hydrogen race.

Financially, , according to Orsted's 2025 guidance. , according to StockAnalysis.

Sector Outlook: A Storm on the Horizon?

The European renewable energy sector is in a trough. As of Q4 2024, , according to Finerva. These declines reflect broader macroeconomic pressures, including inflation and policy delays, rather than a lack of demand for clean energy. For a company like Ørsted, with a diversified global footprint and a first-mover advantage in offshore wind, this sector-wide discount could represent a mispricing opportunity.

The Verdict: Buy the Dip or Beware the Fall?

. While its P/E ratio is lofty, the company's EBITDA and ROCE projections, combined with a robust project pipeline, suggest the market is underestimating its ability to scale. The key risks-debt sustainability and sector-wide headwinds-are real but manageable.

For investors with a multi-year horizon, this could be a rare chance to buy into a renewable energy leader at a discount. However, patience is required. The shares won't rebound overnight, but with offshore wind and green hydrogen poised to dominate the energy transition, Ørsted's fundamentals could eventually justify a higher multiple.