T Rowe Price Surges 5.84% on Bullish Engulfing Pattern as Technicals Signal Upside

Candlestick Theory
T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) exhibited a robust 5.84% surge on September 4, 2025, forming a bullish engulfing pattern that eclipsed the prior three sessions’ losses. This reversal candle closed near the day’s high ($118.22), suggesting strong buying conviction. Key resistance resides near $118.50–$119.00, aligning with the April 2025 peak, while support converges around $105.00–$106.00, anchored to July 2025 consolidation lows. The recent breakout above $110.51 (September 4 low) invalidates immediate bearish pressure, though sustainability requires confirmation above $118.50.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (currently near $105.80) crossed bullishly above the 100-day SMA ($102.60) in late August, signaling improving medium-term momentum. Notably, the 200-day SMA ($97.90) maintains a positive slope, reinforcing the primary uptrend. Price action reclaimed all three SMAs during the September 4 rally, transitioning from a bearish squeeze to bullish alignment. Confluence support emerges at the 50/100-day SMAs ($104.00–$106.00), with a sustained posture above this zone favoring upside continuation.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram turned positive on September 4, with the signal line poised for a bullish crossover after three weeks of neutralization. KDJ’s %K (76) and %D (68) surged from oversold territory, though they now approach overbought thresholds. While both oscillators support near-term upside, divergence risks loom if price stalls near resistance without corresponding momentum extensions. Traders should monitor for KDJ values exceeding 80, which may signal overextension.
Bollinger Bands
September 4’s volatility expansion breached the upper Bollinger Band (20-day, 2σ), historically indicative of strong directional momentum. Band width had contracted sharply through late August, foreshadowing the breakout. Price now trades ≈7% above the 20-day SMA ($108.00), implying short-term mean-reversion risk. A consolidation phase toward the midline ($108.00) would offer healthier entry opportunities, with sustained closes above the upper band ($116.50) required to validate continued strength.
Volume-Price Relationship
The September 4 rally occurred on 5.28M shares—more than double the 30-day average—signifying high conviction behind the breakout. This contrasts with the August downtrend’s declining volume, which lacked distribution patterns. However, follow-through volume is critical; failure to sustain above-average turnover near resistance would undermine credibility. The July/August base near $105.00 saw elevated accumulation, reinforcing that zone as volume-supported demand.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (60) rebounded sharply from oversold levels (sub-30 in mid-August), now testing neutral territory. While not yet overbought, the steep ascent risks overheating if RSI approaches 70 without consolidation. Historically, RSI divergences have preceded pullbacks; the April 2025 high at $118.32 saw RSI at 75 before a 20% correction. Current momentum lacks such divergence but warrants vigilance at key resistance.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the April–June 2025 decline (high: $118.32; low: $92.10), key retracement levels are $102.00 (38.2%), $105.20 (50%), and $108.40 (61.8%). The September 4 close ($111.52) breached the 61.8% level, targeting the 78.6% retracement at $112.80 and full recovery to $118.32. The $108.40–$109.00 zone now acts as pullback support, aligning with the 50-day SMA and August swing highs.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence at $105.00–$106.00 merges the 50/100-day SMAs, volume-based support, and the 50% Fibonacci level, creating a high-probability demand zone. Bullish consensus appears strongest below $110.00. A critical divergence exists between RSI (neutral) and KDJ (nearly overbought), suggesting consolidation may precede further upside. The MACD/price alignment supports continuation, though Bollinger Band expansion hints at short-term exhaustion. Overall, technical structure favors bullish bias above $105.00, with confirmation above $118.50 needed to target new yearly highs.