Roth Capital Downgrades Antero Resources to Neutral, Cites Oversupply in Natural Gas Market

Roth Capital downgraded Antero Resources to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $32, citing oversupply conditions in the natural gas market. The firm expects gas prices to remain challenged until supply growth is constrained. Roth also downgraded a host of gas stocks due to weak supply/demand fundamentals.

Roth Capital Partners has downgraded Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) to "neutral" from "buy" with a new price target of $32, citing oversupply conditions in the natural gas market. The firm expects gas prices to remain challenged until supply growth is constrained [1].

The brokerage's decision follows a broader downgrade of several gas-focused exploration and production companies, including Antero Resources, EQT, EXE, CNX Resources Corp, and Range Resources. Roth Capital Partners' analysts cited forecasts that Henry Hub prices will fall below futures expectations and that production has risen sharply, pushing the market from balanced conditions to oversupply [1].

Antero Resources reported strong financial results for Q2 2025, with an average net production of 3.4 Bcfe/d, consisting of 2.2 Bcf/d of natural gas and 200 MBbl/d of liquids. The company achieved a net income of $157 million and an adjusted net income of $110 million, generating $262 million in free cash flow [2].

However, Roth Capital Partners expects domestic gas supply to grow to 110-111 Bcfgpd or more in 2026, which they believe will lead to gas prices closer to $3.25 per mmbtu range next year. The brokerage noted that the global LNG market could become oversupplied by 2027 as new capacity comes online in Qatar, Australia, Mexico, and Africa, potentially curbing U.S. export demand [1].

While Antero Resources has strong fundamentals, the current market conditions and the expected oversupply suggest a cautious approach. Investors should monitor the situation closely and consider the potential impact of supply growth on gas prices.

References:
[1] https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/roth-cuts-gas-stocks-as-oversupply-threatens-natural-gas-prices-into-2026-4196931
[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/roth-capital-lowers-antero-resources-191148412.html