Rocket Pool/USDC Market Overview

• Price declined from a 24-hour high of $5.41 to a low of $4.94, closing at $4.98.
• Negative momentum persisted, with RSI below 30 and MACD in bearish territory.
• Volatility expanded, as Bollinger Bands widened, with price testing the lower band.
• Volume surged after 15:00 ET as price broke below key support at $5.10.
• Downtrend appears to extend to key Fibonacci levels, with 61.8% at $4.87 nearby.

Market Summary

Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) opened at $5.27 on October 3 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $5.41 and a low of $4.94 before closing at $4.98 as of 12:00 ET on October 4. Over the 24-hour period, the pair recorded a total volume of 11,588.81 and a notional turnover of $57,413.71. The price action was characterized by a clear bearish bias, with a sharp drop in the late afternoon and overnight hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a bearish breakdown from key support at $5.10, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern at 15:00 ET and a strong bearish continuation after 18:15 ET. A long lower shadow at 09:00 ET marked a brief rejection of lower prices, but buyers failed to hold above $5.15. Multiple hammer-like formations at the end of the session suggest possible short-term consolidation or a potential bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period SMAs were well above the current price, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA sits at $5.24, and the 200-day SMA at $5.35, suggesting RPLUSDC remains below both key averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. A cross below the 200-day SMA could signal further bearish continuation.

MACD & RSI

The RSI closed below 30 at the end of the 24-hour period, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to show a convincing rebound. MACD remained in negative territory throughout most of the session, with a bearish crossover at 16:00 ET. The bearish divergence between price and MACD suggests continued downward pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the selloff, with price closing near the lower band at $4.98. The widening indicates an increase in volatility and suggests that traders are reacting to market uncertainty. A retest of the lower band could either confirm the downtrend or trigger a short-term bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked after 15:00 ET as the price broke below $5.10, confirming the breakdown. However, the volume declined sharply after 02:00 ET on October 4, signaling weakening bearish conviction. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with the largest trades occurring in the late afternoon. The volume and turnover divergence in the early morning suggests exhaustion in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from $5.41 to $4.94, the 38.2% retracement is at $5.13 and the 61.8% at $5.00. The 61.8% level appears to be the next critical support, with a breakdown below it likely to extend the move toward $4.87. The daily chart shows a similar retracement pattern, with key support levels aligning with the 15-minute structure.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the consistent bearish bias and the failure of price to rebound from key Fibonacci levels, a backtest could consider a short strategy on RPLUSDC triggered by a close below the 20-period SMA, with a stop-loss placed at the nearest support level and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This strategy could be further refined by incorporating a volume filter to ensure the trade is confirmed by significant selling pressure, as seen in the late afternoon session.