Rocket Lab Stock Surges 14.27% In Two Days As Technicals Signal Bullish Momentum

Rocket Lab (RKLB) closed at $44.60 on July 15, 2025, marking a 3.22% gain and completing a two-day 14.27% rally. This analysis evaluates key technical indicators to assess the stock's trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows a bullish breakout pattern. The July 14 candle (10.71% gain, low: $38.77, high: $43.47) formed a strong bullish engulfing pattern, overpowering prior consolidation candles. This was followed by another green candle on July 15, confirming momentum. Key resistance sits at $45.48 (July 15 high), while support levels are established at $42.82 (July 15 low) and the psychological $40.00 threshold. The breach of the $43.47 resistance-turned-support suggests underlying strength.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($34.21) crossed above the 100-day ($31.80) and 200-day ($28.35) MAs in late June, confirming a bullish long-term trend. Current price ($44.60) trades well above all three averages, indicating sustained upward momentum. The short-term MA slope is steepening, reflecting accelerating bullish sentiment. Golden Cross conditions (50>100>200) remain intact, supporting the uptrend’s structural integrity.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bullish signal line crossover in early July, with histogram bars expanding positively—signaling strengthening momentum. KDJ corroborates this, with the K-line (87) and D-line (79) in overbought territory but maintaining upward separation. While J-line (103) suggests extreme overbought conditions, sustained buying pressure may delay mean reversion. Divergence is absent, supporting trend continuation near-term.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands widened sharply during the July 14–15 rally, reflecting heightened volatility. Price breached the upper band ($43.90) both days—a sign of aggressive bullish momentum. However, this extension increases susceptibility to short-term pullbacks. The prior contraction in early July (bands narrowing near $39) provided the springboard for the breakout, validating classical volatility compression-expansion principles.
Volume-Price Relationship
The rally is validated by robust volume: July 14 volume (29.2M shares) was 78% above the 20-day average, while July 15 (29.9M shares) sustained elevated activity. This divergence from lower volumes during June’s consolidation ($32–$38 range) signals genuine accumulation. Turnover exceeding $1.3B daily confirms institutional participation. Volume intensity near resistance breaks underscores conviction.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI(14) now reads 81—deep in overbought territory. Historically, RKLB has peaked near RSI 85 (e.g., February 2025 top). While warning of exhaustion, the indicator lacks bearish divergence, and momentum-driven stocks can remain overbought. A pullback below RSI 70 would signal cooling, but current readings primarily highlight strong trend momentum rather than imminent reversal.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the June 20 low ($27.84) and July 15 high ($45.48) reveals key levels. The 61.8% retracement ($34.50) aligned with support during June’s consolidation. Current price sits above the 78.6% level ($41.30), now acting as support. Confluence exists at $42.80 (July 15 low/76.4% level), creating a critical short-term floor. Upside targets include the 127.2% extension at $50.60.
Confluence and Caveats
Multiple indicators align bullishly: candlestick breakout, volume-backed price surge, MA stacking, and MACD/KDJ momentum. Overbought RSI and Bollinger Band extension offer counterbalance, hinting at consolidation near $45.48 resistance. Absence of bearish divergences suggests pullbacks to $42.80–$41.30 may present buying opportunities. Vigilance is warranted should RSI sustain >80 or volume fade on advances, but prevailing technicals favor upside continuation with intermediate support at $42.80.