Rocket Lab avanza un 16,8%: ¿Qué alimenta este rally cósmico?

Summary
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) surges 16.8% to $69.99, driven by a $805M defense contract and successful STP-30 mission
• Stock trades near 52-week high of $73.97, with $1.1B backlog and Neutron rocket catalyst ahead
• Sector-wide optimism from SpaceX IPO rumors and U.S. space policy boosts

Rocket Lab’s 16.8% intraday surge has ignited market attention, fueled by a landmark $805M missile-tracking satellite contract and a flawless STP-30 mission for the U.S. Space Force. The stock’s sharp rebound from a 50% pullback earlier this year now threatens its 52-week high, with technical indicators and sector dynamics amplifying the momentum. As the Neutron rocket launch looms in early 2026, investors are weighing whether this rally marks a sustainable inflection point or a speculative overreach.

Landmark Contract and Operational Execution Ignite Rally
Rocket Lab’s 16.8% surge is anchored by a $805M fixed-price contract with the U.S. Space Development Agency to build 18 missile-warning satellites, nearly matching its $1.1B backlog. This deal, secured alongside industry giants like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, underscores Rocket Lab’s transition from a rocket launch provider to a full-stack space systems integrator. Compounding the news, the company’s STP-30 mission for the U.S. Space Force was completed five months ahead of schedule, reinforcing its reliability in defense contracts. Analysts highlight that the contract’s scale—exceeding Rocket Lab’s $555M trailing revenue—signals a structural shift in its growth trajectory, with the Neutron rocket’s 2026 debut poised to unlock larger commercial and government opportunities.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Gains Altitude
The Aerospace & Defense sector has seen renewed vigor, with Rocket Lab’s rally mirroring broader industry optimism. While peers like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) have posted modest gains, Rocket Lab’s 16.8% move reflects its unique positioning in small-satellite and space systems. The sector’s tailwinds include U.S. policy shifts under President Trump, including a $901B National Defense Authorization Act and a new 'America First' space strategy targeting lunar exploration and missile defense. Rocket Lab’s ability to execute high-profile missions ahead of schedule has positioned it as a key beneficiary of this policy-driven momentum.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Rocket Lab’s Volatility
• MACD: 2.12 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.72, Histogram: 1.41 (expanding bullish momentum)
• RSI: 71.55 (overbought), 200D MA: $39.21 (far below current price), Bollinger Bands: $65.10 (upper), $33.56 (lower)

Rocket Lab’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with key resistance at $73.97 (52-week high) and support at $60.75 (intraday low). The stock’s 71.55 RSI and surging MACD indicate overbought conditions, but its 16.8% move has been underpinned by fundamentals, not just speculation. For options traders, the RKLB20251226C70 and RKLB20251226P70 contracts stand out due to their high leverage and liquidity.

• RKLB20251226C70 (Call):
- Strike: $70, IV: 80.03%, Delta: 0.5386, Theta: -0.3835, Gamma: 0.0477, Turnover: $1.59M
- IV (high volatility), Delta (moderate directional bias), Theta (rapid time decay), Gamma (price sensitivity).
- This call option offers a 684% price change potential if Rocket Lab closes above $70 by Dec 26. A 5% upside to $73.48 would yield a payoff of $3.48 per contract, or 49.7% return on the $7.00 strike.

• RKLB20251226P70 (Put):
- Strike: $70, IV: 77.44%, Delta: -0.4616, Theta: -0.0172, Gamma: 0.0493, Turnover: $626K
- IV (high volatility), Delta (moderate bearish bias), Theta (slow decay), Gamma (price sensitivity).
- This put offers -70.83% price change potential if Rocket Lab dips below $70. A 5% downside to $66.49 would yield a $3.51 payoff, or 50.1% return on the $7.00 strike.

Aggressive bulls should consider RKLB20251226C70 into a breakout above $73.97, while cautious bears may short RKLB20251226P70 if the stock consolidates near $70.

Backtest Rocket Lab Stock Performance
The backtest of Rockwell Automation (RKLB) following a 17% intraday surge from 2022 to the present indicates positive short-to-medium-term performance, with varying win rates and returns across different time frames:1. Frequency and Win Rates: The event occurred 492 times, with a 3-day win rate of 51.83%, a 10-day win rate of 55.69%, and a 30-day win rate of 63.82%. This suggests a higher probability of a positive outcome in the short to medium term after the intraday surge.2. Returns: The average 3-day return following the event was 1.17%, with a maximum return of 20.21% on day 59. The 10-day return was higher at 3.84%, with a maximum return of 22.12% on day 77. The 30-day return was 11.22%, with a maximum return of 24.56% on day 93. These returns indicate that while the gains are not consistently high, they can be substantial, especially if held for longer periods.In conclusion, RKLB has shown favorable performance in the short to medium term following a 17% intraday surge. Investors may consider these findings when assessing the potential for holding or trading in RKLB, keeping in mind that past performance is not always indicative of future results.

Rocket Lab’s Cosmic Ascent: Hold for Neutron or Exit at 52-Week High?
Rocket Lab’s 16.8% rally is a blend of fundamental catalysts—$805M in new contracts, mission success, and Neutron rocket hype—and sector-wide optimism from SpaceX IPO rumors. While the stock’s 71.55 RSI and 16.8% move suggest overbought conditions, its fundamentals justify the run, particularly with $1.1B in backlog and a 2026 Neutron launch. Investors should monitor the $73.97 52-week high as a critical inflection point; a break above could validate its transition to a full-stack space company. For now, RKLB20251226C70 offers a high-leverage play on the upside, while RKLB20251226P70 provides a hedge against near-term volatility. Watch for a $70 retest or a breakdown below $60.75 to signal the next move.