Rocket Lab's RKLB Shares Plummet 8.7% Amid JAXA Milestone Success – What's Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• Rocket Lab's JAXA mission success fails to stabilize shares, which plunge to $55.52 intraday
• Options volume surges 3x average, with 49,000 calls traded as bulls bet on rebound
• RSI hits 84.42 (overbought) while MACD histogram spikes at 2.71, signaling divergent momentum

Rocket Lab's (RKLB) shares plunged 8.7% to $56.12 in volatile trading after the company celebrated its first dedicated JAXA mission success. Despite the technical achievement, profit-taking and bearish options positioning triggered a sharp reversal from a $64.56 high. The stock's 52-week range (14.71-73.97) and -154.73 P/E ratio highlight its speculative nature, while options traders bet heavily on both sides of the $56.12 pivot.

JAXA Success Fails to Stabilize Rocket Lab's Shares Amid Profit-Taking and Technical Pressures
Rocket Lab's JAXA mission success should have bolstered investor confidence, yet shares collapsed after hitting a $64.56 intraday high. The selloff reflects profit-taking following a 122% YTD rally and technical exhaustion at overbought RSI levels (84.42). While the JAXA win validates Rocket Lab's reliability, the market is pricing in risks around Neutron rocket delays and $113.4M 2028 earnings forecasts. Short sellers capitalized on the reversal, pushing the stock below its 50-day moving average and triggering stop-loss orders near $54.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Mixed as Boeing Gains 0.23%
Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Rocket Lab's Volatility with RKLB20251219P56 and RKLB20251219C57
• 200-day average: 38.47 (below current price) • RSI: 84.42 (overbought) • MACD: 1.71 (bullish) • Bollinger Bands: 61.19 (upper) / 46.85 (middle) / 32.52 (lower)

Key levels to monitor include the 30D support at $42.37 and 200D support at $18.49. With RSI in overbought territory and MACD diverging from price action, a short-term correction is likely. The $56.12 pivot offers a critical test for bulls.

Top Options Plays:
• RKLB20251219P56 (Put):
- Strike: $56 • Expiry: 12/19 • IV: 97.47% • Delta: -0.4765 • Theta: -0.0095 • Gamma: 0.06236 • Turnover: $259,186
- IV: High volatility suggests strong bearish sentiment • Delta: Moderate sensitivity to price moves • Theta: Minimal time decay • Gamma: High sensitivity to price acceleration • Turnover: High liquidity ensures easy entry/exit
- This put option offers asymmetric upside if the stock breaks below $54, with implied volatility suggesting a 132.38% potential return in a 5% downside scenario.

• RKLB20251219C57 (Call):
- Strike: $57 • Expiry: 12/19 • IV: 96.12% • Delta: 0.4605 • Theta: -0.4487 • Gamma: 0.06304 • Turnover: $248,768
- IV: Elevated but balanced • Delta: Moderate directional exposure • Theta: Aggressive time decay • Gamma: High responsiveness to price swings • Turnover: Strong liquidity
- The call offers a bullish hedge if the stock rebounds above $57, with gamma suggesting it could accelerate higher on a breakout.

Trading Outlook: Aggressive bulls may consider RKLB20251219C57 into a bounce above $57, while bears should target RKLB20251219P56 if the $54 level breaks. The 12/19 expiry provides ample time for a directional move, but theta decay on the call requires a swift reversal.

Backtest Rocket Lab Stock Performance
The backtest of Rockwell Automation (RKLB) after a -9% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present reveals positive short-to-medium-term performance. The 3-Day win rate is 56.34%, the 10-Day win rate is 52.81%, and the 30-Day win rate is 58.00%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest was 16.78% over 59 days, suggesting that RKLB has the potential for recovery and even exceed pre-plunge levels.

Rocket Lab at Crossroads: Watch $54 Support and Neutron Catalysts
Rocket Lab's sharp selloff reflects a mix of profit-taking and technical exhaustion, but the JAXA win and Neutron progress remain core long-term catalysts. Immediate focus should be on the $54 support level and 12/19 options expiry. If the stock breaks below $54, the 30D support at $42.37 becomes critical. Meanwhile, Boeing's 0.23% gain in the Aerospace sector highlights broader market rotation. Investors should prioritize RKLB20251219P56 for bearish exposure or RKLB20251219C57 for a bullish rebound. Watch for Neutron updates and JAXA follow-on contracts to reignite the rally.