Rocket Companies Surges 6.49% on Strategic Shifts and Earnings Beat – Is This the Catalyst for a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Rocket Companies (RKT) surges 6.49% intraday to $18.22, breaking above its 52-week high of $21.38.
• Q2 earnings beat estimates by 33.33% on revenue growth of 10.8%, driven by Redfin’s rising buyer agent commissions.
• New social media agency partnership with Viral Nation replaces glossy feeds with 'real stories' to boost engagement.

Rocket Companies is riding a wave of momentum as Q2 earnings outperformed expectations and strategic repositioning gains traction. With a 6.6% rally in the last 24 hours and a 14.5% surge since earnings, the stock is testing key resistance levels amid a broader sector rally. The move reflects a blend of financial performance, operational shifts, and market sentiment.

Earnings Outperformance and Strategic Rebranding Drive Rally
Rocket Companies' 6.49% intraday surge is anchored by a 33.33% earnings beat and a 10.8% revenue increase to $1.36 billion, driven by Redfin's rising buyer agent commissions and improved mortgage affordability. The company's partnership with Viral Nation to overhaul its social media strategy—replacing polished content with authentic homeownership stories—has amplified brand visibility. Additionally, Redfin's report on stabilizing commissions and falling mortgage rates has positioned Rocket as a beneficiary of a buyer-friendly housing market, reinforcing investor confidence.

Thrifts & Mortgage Finance Sector Trails as Rocket Outpaces Peers
The Thrifts & Mortgage Finance sector, led by JPMorgan Chase (JPM) with a 1.1% gain, has underperformed Rocket Companies' 14.5% post-earnings rally. While peers like Two Harbors Investment (TWO) and Franklin BSP Realty Trust (FBRT) reported revenue misses, Rocket's digital mortgage platform and Redfin's market share gains have insulated it from sector-wide margin pressures. The stock's outperformance underscores its tech-driven differentiation in a competitive landscape.

Options and Technicals Signal Aggressive Bullish Play
• MACD: 0.88 (above signal line 0.72), RSI: 57.4 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: $12.68–$18.57 (current price near upper band).
• 200-day MA: $13.50 (well below current price), 30-day MA: $15.09 (bullish crossover).

Rocket Companies is in a short-term bullish trend, with the 52-week high at $21.38 acting as a key resistance. The 200-day MA at $13.50 provides a strong support level, while the RSI suggests no overbought conditions. For options traders, the RKT20250815C18.5 and RKT20250822C18 contracts offer high leverage and liquidity.

RKT20250815C18.5: Call option with 55.02% leverage, 63.15% IV, and $337k turnover. A 5% price move to $19.04 would yield a $0.54 payoff (max(0, 19.04–18.5)).
• Strike Price: $18.50
• Expiration Date: 2025-08-15
• IV: 63.15% (high implied volatility)
• Leverage Ratio: 55.02% (high potential return)
• Delta: 0.4628 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0295 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.2209 (high sensitivity to price movement)
• Turnover: $337k (high liquidity)
• This contract stands out for its high leverage and gamma, ideal for a short-term breakout play as RKT approaches its 52-week high.

RKT20250822C18: Call option with 23.28% leverage, 56.01% IV, and $65k turnover. A 5% move to $19.04 would yield a $1.04 payoff (max(0, 19.04–18)).
• Strike Price: $18.00
• Expiration Date: 2025-08-22
• IV: 56.01% (moderate implied volatility)
• Leverage Ratio: 23.28% (balanced return)
• Delta: 0.5753 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0264 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.2307 (high sensitivity to price movement)
• Turnover: $76,767 (high liquidity)
• This contract offers a safer, lower-delta entry with strong gamma, amplifying gains as the stock approaches expiration.

Aggressive bulls should target the RKT20250815C18.5 for a short-term breakout play, while the RKT20250822C18 offers a safer, lower-delta entry. Both contracts benefit from high gamma and theta, amplifying gains as the stock approaches expiration.

Backtest Rocket Companies Stock Performance
The backtest of RKT's performance after a 6% intraday surge shows favorable results, with win rates and returns indicating positive short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 48.19%, the 10-Day win rate is 50.09%, and the 30-Day win rate is 50.43%, suggesting that RKT tends to perform well in the immediate aftermath of such events. The maximum return observed was 1.91% over 30 days, which implies that while the gains may not be substantial, they are consistent and can contribute to overall portfolio performance.

Rocket’s Rally Gains Legs—Act Now on Key Levels
Rocket Companies' 6.49% rally is underpinned by earnings strength, strategic repositioning, and a favorable housing market backdrop. The stock's proximity to its 52-week high and strong technicals suggest a continuation of the bullish trend. Investors should monitor the $18.57 Bollinger Band upper limit and the 200-day MA at $13.50 as critical support. With JPMorgan Chase (JPM) up 1.1% as a sector leader, Rocket's outperformance highlights its unique value proposition. Act now: Buy RKT20250815C18.5 if $18.5 breaks, or hold for a test of $21.38.