Rocket Companies Soars 3.5% Amid Trump’s $200B Mortgage Stimulus: What’s Fueling the Surge?

Summary
• Rocket Companies (RKT) surges 3.54% intraday to $24.27, hitting its 52-week high of $24.35.
• Trump’s $200B mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase plan sparks refinancing optimism.
• Sector leader UWM Holdings (UWMC) gains 2.67%, signaling broader mortgage finance sector strength.

Rocket Companies’ stock is riding a wave of momentum as President Trump’s aggressive mortgage market intervention catalyzes investor enthusiasm. With the stock trading near its 52-week peak and the sector responding to policy-driven tailwinds, the interplay of technical strength and macroeconomic catalysts demands closer scrutiny.

Trump’s $200B MBS Plan Ignites Mortgage Sector Optimism
President Trump’s directive to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities has directly fueled Rocket Companies’ rally. By lowering mortgage rates and stimulating refinancing activity, the policy amplifies demand for Rocket’s mortgage servicing operations, particularly after its Mr. Cooper acquisition. The move also aligns with broader efforts to curb institutional investor influence on housing prices, indirectly boosting Rocket’s real estate and lending platforms. This confluence of policy support and operational scale explains the stock’s sharp intraday ascent.

Mortgage Finance Sector Gains Momentum as UWM Holdings Leads Charge
The mortgage finance sector is broadly responding to Trump’s intervention, with UWM Holdings (UWMC) rising 2.67% alongside Rocket’s 3.54% gain. While Rocket’s rally is more pronounced, UWM’s performance underscores sector-wide optimism. The $200B MBS purchase is expected to stabilize mortgage rates, benefiting all major servicers but particularly those with expanded servicing footprints like Rocket and UWM.

Leverage the Rally: ETF and Options Plays for Rocket’s Momentum
• Defiance Daily Target 2X Long RKT ETF (RKTL): 7.44% gain, amplifying RKT’s 3.54% move.
• 200-day MA: $16.42 (well below current price), RSI: 79.04 (overbought), MACD: 1.16 (bullish), Bollinger Upper Band: $24.01 (near current price).

Rocket’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition but strong momentum. Key support at $19.32 (30D) and resistance at $24.01 (Bollinger Upper). The Defiance ETF (RKTL) offers 2X leverage to capitalize on continued gains. For options, two contracts stand out:

• RKT20260123C21: Call option, strike $21, expiration 2026-01-23. IV: 85.06% (high volatility), leverage ratio: 7.34%, delta: 0.88 (high sensitivity), theta: -0.131 (rapid time decay), gamma: 0.065 (strong price sensitivity). Turnover: 54,230. This contract offers aggressive leverage for a 5% upside scenario (target $25.48), with a projected payoff of $4.48 per share.
• RKT20260123C21.5: Call option, strike $21.5, expiration 2026-01-23. IV: 80.22%, leverage ratio: 10.98%, delta: 0.85 (moderate sensitivity), theta: -0.1335 (high time decay), gamma: 0.080 (strong gamma). Turnover: 0. Despite low turnover, its high leverage ratio and moderate delta make it a speculative play for a sharp move above $21.50.

Aggressive bulls should consider RKT20260123C21 into a breakout above $24.01, while RKT20260123C21.5 offers high-risk, high-reward potential if the stock accelerates.

Backtest Rocket Companies Stock Performance
The backtest of Rocket Lab (RKT) after a 4% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows favorable performance metrics. The 3-Day win rate is 49.80%, the 10-Day win rate is 52.24%, and the 30-Day win rate is 56.10%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 4.88%, which occurred on day 57, suggesting that RKT can deliver decent gains even after a substantial intraday surge.

Rocket’s Rally: A Policy-Driven Catalyst with Sector-Wide Implications
Rocket Companies’ surge is a direct response to Trump’s $200B MBS plan, which is likely to sustain momentum in the mortgage finance sector. While technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, the policy-driven narrative and sector strength (e.g., UWM Holdings’ 2.67% gain) justify holding long positions. Investors should monitor the 52-week high of $24.35 as a critical level; a break above could trigger a broader sector rally. For now, the Defiance ETF (RKTL) and selected call options offer amplified exposure to Rocket’s policy-fueled ascent.