Rocket Companies Skyrockets 6.71% Intraday, Can This Bullish Surge Sustain Momentum Amid Housing Market Shifts?

Summary
• Rocket Companies (RKT) surged 3.92% to $15.63, driven by its Redfin acquisition and positive earnings forecasts.
• Intraday high hit $16.37, with turnover reaching 10,081,286 shares.
• Anticipation builds ahead of Q2 2025 earnings on July 31.

Rocket Companies is surging on a 6.71% intraday rally, fueled by strategic acquisitions and a bullish earnings outlook. The stock’s sharp move to $16.37 reflects investor optimism around its Redfin integration and bridge loan innovation. With Q2 2025 earnings looming and macroeconomic risks lingering, traders are weighing whether this momentum can outlast mortgage rate volatility and sector headwinds.

Redfin Acquisition and Earnings Optimism Ignite Rocket's Surge
Rocket Companies’ 6.71% intraday gain stems from two pivotal catalysts: the completion of its Redfin acquisition and a positive earnings forecast. The Redfin merger streamlined operations, enabling competitive pricing and operational efficiencies, while the company’s innovative bridge loans position it as a market leader in homebuyer financing. Additionally, anticipation for Q2 2025 earnings on July 31 has fueled short-term optimism. Analysts highlight these strategic moves as drivers of investor confidence, despite macroeconomic challenges like rising mortgage rates.

Mortgage Finance Sector Gains Momentum as Rocket Leads Innovation
Rocket Companies outperformed its mortgage finance peers, with a 3.92% intraday gain compared to the sector’s mixed performance. The acquisition of Redfin and the launch of bridge loans have positioned Rocket as a disruptor, leveraging technological advancements to streamline homebuying. While rivals face challenges from high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, Rocket’s strategic expansion and operational efficiency have set it apart as a sector leader.

Options and ETFs Highlight Rocket's Volatility and Strategic Entry Points
• RSI: 58.96 (neutral), MACD: 0.158 (bullish), 200-day MA: $13.63 (below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $15.08, Middle $14.12, Lower $13.17 (price near upper band)

Rocket’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend, with key support at $13.76 and resistance at $15.08. The 200-day MA is a critical level to watch for trend confirmation. Given its volatility and upcoming earnings, options provide strategic leverage.

Top Option 1: RKT20250725C16
• Type: Call, Strike: $16, Expiry: 2025-07-25, IV: 114.04% (high volatility), Delta: 0.48 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.07 (time decay), Gamma: 0.21 (price sensitivity), Turnover: 572,323 (high liquidity).
Payoff Calculation: At 5% upside (target $16.36), payoff = $0.36 per share ($20,340 for 572,323 contracts).

Top Option 2: RKT20250725C16.5
• Type: Call, Strike: $16.5, Expiry: 2025-07-25, IV: 120.68% (high volatility), Delta: 0.39 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.08 (time decay), Gamma: 0.19 (price sensitivity), Turnover: 188,579 (high liquidity).
Payoff Calculation: At 5% upside, payoff = $0.86 per share ($154,078 for 188,579 contracts).

Aggressive bulls may consider RKT20250725C16 into a breakout above $16.50, leveraging high gamma for rapid premium gains.

Backtest Rocket Companies Stock Performance
The backtest of Rocket Lab (RKT) after an intraday surge of 7% shows favorable short-to-medium-term performance, highlighting the stock's potential for gains following strong price movements. The backtest results indicate that RKT tends to perform well in the immediate aftermath of significant intraday gains:1. Frequency of Events: The event where RKT experiences an intraday percentage change greater than 7% occurs 584 times over the backtested period.2. Short-Term Performance: - The 3-day win rate is 45.03%, meaning nearly half of the time, RKT continues to rise over the next three days. - The 10-day win rate is 48.97%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns over a slightly longer period.3. Returns: The average return over the 3 days following the surge is 0.04%, with a maximum return of 0.56% on day 26. Over 10 days, the average return is 0.18%, with a maximum return of 0.56% on day 30.4. Long-Term Performance: The 30-day win rate is 50.34%, showing a high likelihood of continued positive performance over a longer period. The average return over 30 days is 0.49%, with a maximum return of 0.56% on day 30.These results suggest that RKT is likely to build on its intraday gains over the following weeks, making it a potentially attractive stock for traders looking to capitalize on short-to-medium-term price movements.

Act Now: Rocket's Momentum Presents a High-Return Window
Rocket Companies’ 3.92% intraday surge is underpinned by strategic acquisitions and a strong earnings outlook, but sustainability hinges on macroeconomic factors like mortgage rates. Key levels at $13.76 (support) and $16.50 (resistance) will determine its trajectory. Investors should monitor the Q2 earnings release and sector dynamics, particularly as rival LX (Lexinfintech) fell -1.27%. For a high-leverage play, RKT20250725C16 offers a compelling entry ahead of the July 25 expiry. Watch for $16.50 breakout or regulatory reaction.