Rocket Companies (RKT): A High-Conviction Buy in a Fed-Easy, AI-Powered, and Onshoring-Driven Energy Infrastructure Play

In an era defined by the convergence of artificial intelligence (AI), energy transition, and onshoring, Rocket Companies (RKT) has emerged as an overlooked yet pivotal infrastructure enabler. While much of the market fixates on tech darlings and energy majors, RKT's strategic acquisitions, AI-driven operational efficiency, and alignment with macro tailwinds position it as a multi-bagger opportunity. This analysis argues that RKT is uniquely poised to benefit from the AI infrastructure boom and the global energy transition, supported by recent analyst upgrades and a favorable policy environment.

Strategic Acquisitions: Scaling Market Share and Operational Efficiency

Rocket Companies' recent $9.4 billion acquisition of Mr. Cooper Group has transformed its business model, quadrupling its servicing unpaid principal balance to $2.15 trillion according to reports. This move not only secured seven million additional clients but also solidified RKT's dominance in the mortgage servicing sector, with analysts upgrading the stock to "Market Perform" and "Buy" with price targets of $14 and $16. The acquisition's scale provides a robust foundation for earnings predictability and long-term market share gains.

Complementing this, RKT's July 2025 acquisition of Redfin has created an end-to-end homeownership platform, integrating mortgage services with real estate and homebuilding. This vertical integration reduces friction in the housing market, a sector ripe for AI-driven optimization. Analysts project RKT's revenue to reach $8.7 billion by 2028, driven by AI's ability to streamline processes and reduce costs.

AI and Energy Transition: A Symbiotic Nexus

The AI arms race is intensifying demand for computing power, which in turn drives energy infrastructure needs. AI operations are inherently energy-intensive; for instance, a single ChatGPT query consumes significantly more energy than a Google search. As AI deployment scales, so does the demand for data centers and renewable energy solutions.

Rocket Companies is strategically positioned to benefit from this nexus. Its AI-driven mortgage platform reduces processing times and operational costs, while its alignment with the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act ensures access to capital for energy infrastructure projects. The IIJA, for example, is accelerating grid modernization and electrification, while the IRA's tax credits for clean energy manufacturing incentivize domestic production of solar modules, batteries, and wind turbines-sectors critical to powering AI's energy demands.

Onshoring and ESG: A Dual Tailwind

The U.S. is witnessing a manufacturing renaissance in clean energy, driven by the IRA's Section 45X tax credit. Rocket Companies' ESG initiatives, including its Rocket Community Fund and partnerships with Breakthrough Energy, align with global decarbonization goals. By 2025, U.S. clean energy manufacturing investment had surged to $14.0 billion quarterly, with battery and solar production capacity outpacing deployment. RKT's focus on ESG not only enhances its brand equity but also positions it to capture a share of the $3.3 trillion energy transition investment projected for 2025.

Onshoring trends are further amplified by geopolitical competition. The U.S. is racing to secure domestic supply chains for critical technologies, with over 380 clean energy manufacturing facilities announced since 2022. Rocket Companies' strategic acquisitions and AI-driven efficiency make it a natural beneficiary of this shift, as companies prioritize resilient, localized infrastructure.

Risks and Mitigants

While RKT faces challenges-such as rising tariffs on Chinese imports and policy uncertainty-the sector's resilience is evident. Despite six project cancellations in Q1 2025 totaling $6.9 billion, new manufacturing projects announced $9.4 billion in investments during the same period. RKT's diversified business model and strong balance sheet mitigate these risks, allowing it to capitalize on long-term trends rather than short-term volatility.

Investment Thesis: A Multi-Bagger Before the AI Infrastructure Story Goes Mainstream

Rocket Companies is not merely a mortgage lender but a foundational player in the AI and energy transition. Its strategic acquisitions have created a scalable platform, while its AI-driven efficiency and ESG alignment position it to benefit from $6 trillion in annual clean energy investment by 2030. With a price target of $16 from Deutsche Bank and a projected $8.7 billion revenue by 2028, RKT offers a compelling risk-reward profile.

For investors seeking exposure to the AI infrastructure boom and energy transition without overpaying for speculative tech stocks, Rocket Companies represents a high-conviction, undervalued opportunity. As the Fed's easy monetary policy continues to fuel capital flows into infrastructure and clean energy, RKT's role as an enabler of these megatrends will only grow in significance.