Rocket Companies Plummets 4.36% Amid Fed Rate Hints and AI Energy Megatrends: What’s Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• Rocket Companies (RKT) trades at $19.185, down 4.36% from its previous close of $20.06
• Intraday range spans $19.18 to $20.16, with 11.26M shares traded
• Analysts highlight RKT’s AI-driven mortgage platform and energy transition alignment as key themes

Rocket Companies is under pressure as investors weigh the Federal Reserve’s rate-holding signals against the company’s strategic bets on AI and energy infrastructure. With a 4.36% intraday drop and a price near its 52-week low of $10.06, the stock’s volatility reflects a tug-of-war between macroeconomic uncertainty and long-term growth narratives.

Fed Policy Uncertainty and AI Energy Megatrends Create Divergent Investor Sentiment
Rocket Companies’ sharp decline stems from a confluence of factors. The Federal Reserve’s recent hints at maintaining elevated interest rates have dampened near-term optimism for mortgage-related stocks, as higher borrowing costs weigh on refinancing demand. Meanwhile, RKT’s strategic acquisitions—such as Redfin and Mr. Cooper—position it as an AI-driven infrastructure enabler in the energy transition, yet these long-term plays struggle to offset short-term macro fears. Analysts note that while RKT’s AI-powered mortgage platform and ESG initiatives align with $6T in clean energy investments, the stock’s high beta (2.26) amplifies its sensitivity to rate volatility.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility with RKT20260109C18 and RKT20260109C18.5
• MACD: 0.355 (above signal line 0.307), RSI: 63.48 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: 18.06–20.13 (current price near lower band)
• 200D MA: $15.99 (well below current price), 30D MA: $18.78 (support near $18.16)

Rocket Companies is trading near its 52-week low but shows short-term bullish momentum. Key technical levels include the 30D support at $18.16 and 200D support at $12.72. The stock’s beta of 2.26 suggests continued sensitivity to rate moves, but its AI and energy transition narrative could drive a rebound if the Fed signals easing. For options traders, two contracts stand out:

• RKT20260109C18
- Strike: $18, Expiration: 2026-01-09, IV: 71.19%, Leverage: 11.61%, Delta: 0.739, Theta: -0.049, Gamma: 0.1427, Turnover: 854
- IV (high volatility), Leverage (amplifies gains), Delta (moderate directional bias), Theta (moderate time decay), Gamma (high sensitivity to price swings).
- This call option offers asymmetric upside if RKT breaks above $18.50, leveraging its high gamma and leverage ratio. A 5% downside scenario (to $18.22) would yield a payoff of $0.22 per contract.

• RKT20260109C18.5
- Strike: $18.50, Expiration: 2026-01-09, IV: 43.53%, Leverage: 18.90%, Delta: 0.729, Theta: -0.038, Gamma: 0.238, Turnover: 20,705
- IV (moderate volatility), Leverage (high amplification), Delta (strong directional bias), Theta (moderate decay), Gamma (very high sensitivity).
- This contract is ideal for aggressive bulls. With high gamma and leverage, it could capitalize on a rebound above $19.18. A 5% downside (to $18.22) would result in a $0.72 payoff.

Action Alert: Aggressive bulls may consider RKT20260109C18.5 into a bounce above $19.18, while RKT20260109C18 offers a safer entry if the stock stabilizes near $18.50.

Backtest Rocket Companies Stock Performance
The iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence ETF (RKT) has demonstrated resilience following a -4% intraday plunge. Over a 3-day period, the win rate is 48.91%, with an average return of 0.30%. Over a 10-day period, the win rate increases to 50.89%, with an average return of 0.77%. Over a 30-day period, the win rate is 57.06%, with an average return of 3.02%. The maximum return during the backtest was 7.87%, occurring on day 59.

RKT at a Crossroads: Watch $18.16 Support and Sector Leader PFSI’s -0.6% Drag
Rocket Companies’ 4.36% drop underscores the tension between macroeconomic headwinds and its AI/energy transition narrative. While the stock’s technicals suggest a potential rebound near $18.16, the Fed’s rate stance and mortgage sector weakness—evidenced by PennyMac Financial (PFSI)’s -0.6% decline—pose near-term risks. Investors should monitor RKT’s ability to hold above $18.16 and the Fed’s January policy signals. For those with a bullish bias, the RKT20260109C18.5 option offers a high-gamma play on a rebound, but caution is warranted until the $19.18 intraday low holds as support.