RLCBTC Market Overview

• RLCBTC declined 0.15% in 24 hours with bearish momentum emerging after a key 8.75e-06 support tested twice.
• Volatility contracted mid-session, with Bollinger Bands narrowing before a late sell-off.
• RSI fell into oversold territory, but price-volume divergence suggests weak conviction in the move.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged briefly around 8.66e-06 but failed to hold against renewed selling.
• High volume clustered around 8.75e-06 and 8.66e-06 suggests key resistance and support levels are being contested.

At 12:00 ET–1, iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) opened at 8.75e-06, reaching a high of 8.81e-06 and a low of 8.53e-06, closing at 8.54e-06. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 8,805.3 units, with notional turnover driven by price swings across the session. The pair exhibited bearish bias, especially in the second half of the day.

Structure & Formations

The RLCBTC pair displayed a bearish breakdown from the 8.75e-06 support level, with price falling to a 24-hour low near 8.53e-06 after a mid-session consolidation phase. A brief bullish engulfing pattern formed near 8.66e-06 but failed to gain traction against stronger bearish momentum. A doji formed near 8.75e-06, signaling indecision, while the cluster of volume at this level suggests it may act as a key psychological floor. A significant bearish flag pattern developed from 8.81e-06 to 8.54e-06, with the trendline in place indicating potential for further downward pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs both fell below the price action, confirming a bearish bias. Price remained below all moving averages for most of the session, with the 50-SMA acting as a short-term resistance. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs are expected to be aligned bearishly, reinforcing the trend unless strong buyers intervene.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained in negative territory, with a bearish crossover confirmed as the signal line crossed above it in the red zone. The histogram showed increasing bearish momentum in the afternoon. RSI fell into oversold territory below 30, reaching as low as 26, but failed to trigger a rebound—suggesting weak conviction in the move. A divergence between RSI and price may indicate a potential bounce, but caution is warranted as bearish control remains strong.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction between 8.78e-06 and 8.75e-06, signaling low volatility. Price then broke below the lower band at 8.53e-06, confirming a bearish breakout. The width of the bands expanded significantly in the final hours of the session, reflecting heightened volatility as sellers took control.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly at 8.75e-06 and 8.66e-06, indicating key levels of activity. However, volume declined sharply in the final hours despite the sharp price move, which could signal fading bearish conviction. Notional turnover remained relatively low, with most of the selling pressure concentrated in the late session.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels from the 8.81e-06 high to 8.53e-06 low suggest 8.63e-06 (38.2%) and 8.69e-06 (61.8%) as potential areas of interest for bounces or consolidations. A breakdown below 8.53e-06 could target 8.51e-06, while a rebound above 8.66e-06 may test 8.75e-06 again.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for RLCBTC could involve a bearish breakout trade when price closes below a 15-minute lower Bollinger Band, confirmed by a bearish MACD crossover and RSI below 30. A stop-loss could be placed just above the recent swing high near 8.75e-06, with a target near the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 8.69e-06. This approach would seek to capture short-term bearish momentum while leveraging key technical signals.