RLC/BTC Market Overview – 2025-10-12

• Price opened at $7.71e-06, traded between $7.11e-06 and $7.89e-06, closed at $7.38e-06
• A strong bearish reversal followed by a consolidation phase with high volume near the $7.11e-06 level
• RSI oversold territory hit, suggesting potential for a rebound, but momentum remains mixed
• Bollinger Bands showed a period of tight contraction followed by expansion after the 20:30 ET print
• Total volume reached 377,425.0 RLC and turnover surged to $2.765 with divergences in later hours

The iExec RLC/Bitcoin pair, trading as RLCBTC, opened at $7.71e-06 at 12:00 ET-1 and fluctuated within a range of $7.11e-06 to $7.89e-06 over the past 24 hours. The price closed at $7.38e-06 at 12:00 ET, with total volume reaching 377,425.0 RLC and notional turnover amounting to approximately $2.765. The session featured a sharp bearish reversal during the 20:15–21:30 ET timeframe, followed by a consolidation into the mid-7.3e-06 range.

Structure & Formations

The chart shows a strong bearish breakdown from $7.89e-06 with a notable bearish engulfing pattern at 17:15–17:30 ET, followed by a hammer-like reversal at 20:15 ET as prices rebounded from $7.11e-06. The $7.3e-06 level has emerged as a strong short-term support, with a doji at 05:30–05:45 ET indicating indecision. A key resistance appears at $7.58e-06 where buyers previously stalled.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price during the 20:15–20:30 ET window, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Over the longer term, the 50-period MA on the daily chart appears to have crossed below the 200-period MA, suggesting a potential shift in trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative with a bearish crossover at 20:30 ET, confirming the bearish move. The RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 for several hours before showing a tentative rebound, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the momentum remains weak, and a breakout above $7.58e-06 would be needed to confirm bullish continuation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of tight contraction between 01:00 and 04:45 ET, followed by a sharp expansion after the 20:15 ET bearish break. Price has remained within the lower 1/3 of the bands for most of the session, indicating subdued volatility. A move above the upper band at $7.59e-06 could trigger a volatility rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 20:15 ET with a large bearish candle of 376,703.7 RLC traded, indicating a major liquidation event. Turnover followed closely, reaching a 24-hour high during the same window. Later in the session, volume declined significantly, especially between 02:00 and 07:00 ET, suggesting a lack of conviction in the current level.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key bearish swing from $7.89e-06 to $7.11e-06, the 61.8% retracement level aligns with $7.55e-06, which has already shown resistance. A potential pullback to 38.2% at $7.44e-06 has seen mixed volume and may indicate a temporary floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a long position on a close above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $7.55e-06 with a stop-loss placed below the 50-period MA at $7.3e-06 and a take-profit at the upper Bollinger Band at $7.59e-06. This setup would aim to capitalize on a short-term bounce from oversold conditions, supported by the RSI and MACD divergence. Volume spikes and pattern formations could be used to refine entry timing and filter out weaker breakouts.

Looking ahead, a breakout above $7.58e-06 could signal a potential reversal, while a retest of $7.11e-06 may trigger further selling. Investors should remain cautious of high volatility and volume divergence as potential false breakouts may occur.