Rivian Shares Fall 5.22% in Six-Day Slide, 12.74% Drop as Technical Analysis Confirms Bearish Momentum

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) has experienced a significant downturn, with a 5.22% decline on the most recent session, marking a six-day losing streak and a cumulative drop of 12.74%. This sharp correction suggests heightened bearish momentum, warranting a detailed technical analysis across multiple frameworks to assess potential scenarios.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action reveals a series of bearish candlestick patterns, including engulfing patterns and dark cloud covers, indicating strong selling pressure. Key support levels are forming around $19.28 (the lowest point in the past six sessions) and $18.37 (a prior consolidation zone). Resistance is evident near $20.33 and $20.67, where previous attempts to rally failed. The price has also formed a descending channel, reinforcing the bearish bias.

A break below $19.28 may target the next support at $17.63, with a potential for further downside if volatility intensifies.
Moving Average Theory
Short-term moving averages (50-day and 100-day) have crossed below the 200-day MA, signaling a bearish "death cross" scenario. The 50-day MA is currently below the 100-day MA, confirming a downward trend. The price is trading well beneath all three averages, suggesting continued weakness. A retest of the 200-day MA (~$19.00) may provide temporary support, but a sustained break below this level could accelerate the decline toward $17.00, aligning with the 200-day MA’s projected trajectory.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has shown consistent bearish divergence, with the MACD line (12-period) falling below the signal line (26-period), reinforcing the downtrend. The KDJ (Stochastic) oscillator is in oversold territory, with the %K line below 20 and %D below 30, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, this must be interpreted cautiously, as the bearish momentum remains dominant. A failure to close above the 200-day MA despite oversold readings may indicate a false recovery, with the trend resuming lower.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded recently, with the price testing the lower Bollinger Band. This suggests heightened bearish pressure and a potential continuation of the decline. The band contraction observed in late December has given way to expansion, indicating increased trading activity and alignment with the downtrend. A retest of the lower band may trigger further selling, particularly if volume remains elevated.
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume has surged during the recent decline, with the most recent session seeing 38.3 million shares traded, validating the bearish move. However, volume has started to moderate slightly, hinting at potential exhaustion in the short term. A divergence between volume and price (e.g., declining volume during a new low) could signal waning bearish conviction, but this remains unconfirmed. For now, the high volume supports the sustainability of the downtrend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI is in oversold territory (<30), with a reading of approximately 25, indicating potential for a near-term rebound. However, in a strong downtrend, the RSI can remain depressed for extended periods. A stochastic RSI crossover above the 20 level may prompt a short-covering rally, but without a confluence of bullish signals (e.g., a break above the 50-day MA), this is likely to be a temporary relief rally rather than a trend reversal.
Fibonacci Retracement
Fibonacci levels drawn from the December 19 peak ($22.45) to the December 30 low ($19.28) highlight key retracement zones. The 38.2% level (~$20.00) has already failed as resistance, and the 50% level (~$20.87) is now a critical area to watch. A break below the 61.8% level (~$19.86) would confirm a deeper correction toward $18.80. The 78.6% level (~$19.15) serves as a critical support zone; a close below this could trigger a test of the 88.6% level (~$18.20).

Confluence and Divergences
The most compelling confluence occurs at the 200-day MA (~$19.00), where support from the MA, Fibonacci 78.6% level, and lower Bollinger Band converge. A break below this level would likely trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders and further declines. Conversely, a short-term bounce is probable from the current oversold RSI and Stochastic readings, but this is unlikely to reverse the broader bearish trend unless accompanied by a decisive break above the 50-day MA and a surge in buying volume.
The primary divergence lies between the RSI’s oversold signal and the continued bearish momentum in price and volume. While the RSI suggests a potential rebound, the broader technical landscape (bearish MAs, MACD, and volume) indicates that any bounce may be short-lived, with the trend resuming lower.
Probabilistic Outlook
The most probable near-term scenario is a continuation of the downtrend, with the price targeting $18.00–$17.60 as key support zones. A 70–75% probability is assigned to this outcome, given the alignment of bearish indicators. A 20–25% probability is allocated to a temporary rebound to $19.50–$20.00, driven by oversold conditions and short-covering, but this is contingent on a lack of positive catalysts. A 5–10% probability remains for a trend reversal if the stock closes above $21.00 with strong volume, but this would require a significant shift in sentiment.