Risk Appetite Fades: Market Mood Turns Defensive

Red is spreading across the screen. Equities are fighting to justify premium multiples, the dollar is nudging higher, oil is slipping, and crypto is tagging along with risk assets. Gold, oddly serene, is the lone holdout. When multiple assets lean the same way, it’s worth listening.

Equities: Testing a Fragile Uptrend

S&P futures are probing the October 24 swing lows—the base of the latest breakout. Momentum is deteriorating: a bearish divergence on a 45-period slow stochastic (price makes higher highs while momentum doesn’t) isn’t a sell signal by itself, but near potential turning points it deserves respect. If cash markets confirm with broad advance-decline weakness and heavy volume, dip-buyers may hesitate. I’m also watching for “trapped” retail flows—late entries into crowded leaders that can accelerate downside once supports give way.

What would flip this view? A decisive reclaim of those October 24 levels, coupled with improving breadth.

Dollar & FX: Narrative Chasing Price

The Dollar Index (DXY) looks stretched, yet major counterparts—the euro and yen—remain unconvincing to outright weak. That keeps the path of least resistance tilted toward a firmer dollar, especially after Chair Powell’s “don’t count on it” tone regarding a December rate cut.

Oil: The Sanctions Rally That Fizzled

Crude is testing the lower end of its “sanctions premium” range. If supply fears won’t lift prices, the market is telling you growth concerns matter more right now.

Watch: Timespreads (contango vs. backwardation) for signals on near-term tightness; a move deeper into contango would underline demand doubts.

Gold: Back in Its Cocoon

Gold’s recent disengagement from the macro noise isn’t new; we’ve seen periodic “deafness” over the last two years. That behavior sometimes precedes big range shifts. A $4,000 “point of control” (a price area where heavy volume historically concentrates) is a plausible future magnet. Until then, price compression keeps optionality intact.

Bitcoin: Risk Proxy, Risk Problem

Bitcoin just undercut its prior isolated low—technically a weak signal. In the current tape, crypto is behaving like a high-beta expression of equities rather than an uncorrelated asset. Unless liquidity conditions improve or a crypto-specific catalyst appears, beta cuts both ways.

Bottom line: Across the board, technical patterns are converging toward a defensive stance. Stocks are breaking down, oil is rolling over, Bitcoin’s momentum is fading, and even formerly solid risk hedges like gold appear indecisive. Meanwhile, the dollar is quietly regaining authority. The tape is speaking. I often refer to Marty Zweig’s rules whenever I sense a sea change: Don’t fight the tape—seems apt. Don't play all the time seems most useful in November 2025.