Aumento del riesgo en el crédito privado, en medio de “bajas estimaciones de riesgos” y debilidades estructurales

The private credit market, a $3 trillion asset class that has long been lauded for its diversification and yield potential, is showing signs of growing fragility in 2025. A confluence of structural weaknesses and the proliferation of "bad PIKs" (Payment-In-Kind provisions) is raising alarms among investors and regulators. These developments suggest a mispricing of risk that could test the resilience of the sector as economic pressures intensify.

The Proliferation of "Bad PIKs"

According to a report by , the share of "bad PIKs"-retroactive conversions of cash interest to PIK-has surged from 36.7% in Q4 2021 to 57.2% in Q3 2025. This trend reflects borrowers' struggles to meet liquidity demands amid higher interest rates and economic uncertainty. While PIKs are not inherently problematic, their retroactive application signals deteriorating credit quality. Lincoln International notes that such conversions often occur when borrowers face underperformance, effectively deferring interest payments and increasing the risk of default.

The rise of bad PIKs is particularly concerning because it obscures the true cost of debt and creates a false sense of stability. highlights, this practice can mask underlying vulnerabilities, making it harder for investors to assess the health of private credit portfolios.

Structural Weaknesses Beyond PIKs

Beyond bad PIKs, the private credit market is grappling with broader structural challenges. A lack of transparency in underwriting practices and leverage levels has left many investors in the dark about the true risk profiles of their holdings. In the U.S. middle market, large private credit platforms are competing aggressively for jumbo transactions, often at the expense of underwriting discipline. Covenant-lite structures, which reduce lender protections, are becoming more common in these deals.

Meanwhile, lower middle market (LMM) transactions-while offering higher yields-come with significant risks, including limited financial cushions and governance challenges. These weaknesses are compounded by the opaque nature of private credit valuations, which make it difficult to benchmark performance or identify early warning signs of distress.

Risk Mispricing and Market Reactions

The combination of bad PIKs and structural fragility is contributing to a mispricing of risk. Recent bankruptcies, such as those of subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings and auto-parts supplier First Brands Group, have exposed vulnerabilities in sectors reliant on opaque financing structures. These cases, coupled with alleged fraud involving regional banks like Zions Bancorp, have intensified investor scrutiny.

Regulatory responses are also emerging. The Bank of England has announced stress tests for private credit firms to enhance transparency and risk management standards. Meanwhile, market reactions have included outflows from collateralized loan obligation (CLO) ETFs and widening spreads in business development company (BDC) bonds. While these adjustments are not indicative of a systemic crisis, they underscore the sector's evolving risk landscape.

A Maturing Market or a Looming Crisis?

Despite these challenges, some analysts argue that the private credit market is undergoing a necessary maturation process. Unlike the 2008 financial crisis, today's environment features a more diversified financial system, stronger bank capital requirements, and improved risk management frameworks. The collaboration between traditional banks and private credit firms-where banks extend loans to private credit providers while maintaining conservative underwriting standards- has also acted as a stabilizing force.

However, the risks remain real. notes, the integration of private credit into retail investment products requires careful implementation to avoid overexposure to opaque assets. Technological advancements in due diligence and portfolio monitoring offer some hope for mitigating risks, but they cannot replace disciplined underwriting.

Conclusion

The private credit market's current trajectory highlights the need for heightened vigilance. While the sector's growth and innovation have delivered compelling returns, the rise of bad PIKs and structural weaknesses signal a growing disconnect between perceived and actual risk. Investors must prioritize rigorous due diligence, stress-test their portfolios, and remain attuned to regulatory developments. For the private credit market to thrive in the long term, it must address these cracks before they widen into a full-blown crisis.