Aumento del riesgo regulatorio en los mercados de predicción: Implicaciones para el comercio criptográfico y el comercio especulativo

The prediction market sector, once a niche experiment in financial innovation, has emerged as a significant force in speculative trading and crypto ecosystems. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have attracted billions in trading volumes, offering contracts on political, economic, and sports-related outcomes. However, this rapid growth has collided with a fragmented and increasingly hostile regulatory landscape, particularly in the U.S., EU, and Asia. For investors and traders, the implications are clear: strategic caution and long-term positioning are now essential to navigate the evolving risks.

Regulatory Divergence: U.S. vs. EU

In the United States, prediction markets have thrived under a patchwork of state laws and a federal regulatory vacuum. Kalshi, for instance, secured $1 billion in funding in 2025 and reported weekly trading volumes exceeding $1 billion. Yet, this growth has triggered a wave of legal challenges. Over 20 lawsuits have been filed against platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, with regulators in Connecticut, Nevada, and Massachusetts arguing that these markets operate as unlicensed gambling ventures. The legal debate hinges on whether prediction markets should be classified as gambling or a distinct financial instrument. This ambiguity has led to cease-and-desist orders and threatens to escalate to the U.S. Supreme Court, where a ruling could redefine the sector's legal boundaries.

In contrast, the European Union has adopted a more restrictive stance. The French National Gaming Authority has actively cracked down on prediction markets, while the broader EU regulatory framework, including the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation enacted in 2025, has yet to provide a clear pathway for these platforms. MiCA's focus on crypto-asset risks has left prediction markets in a gray area, with no indication of whether the framework will accommodate them. This regulatory caution contrasts sharply with the U.S.'s innovation-driven but legally uncertain environment.

Asia's Hostile Terrain

Asia presents an even more challenging environment for prediction markets. In the Philippines, legal expert Marie Antonette "Tonet" Quiogue has emphasized that the country's broad definition of gambling-encompassing any betting on outcomes involving chance-leaves no room for legal prediction markets. The Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR) has not authorized any such operations, rendering them illegal. Meanwhile, U.S. states like Connecticut and Nevada have mirrored this hostility, with regulators framing prediction markets as threats to existing gaming frameworks. The lack of a federal licensing model in the U.S. has further exacerbated legal fragmentation, creating a high-risk environment for operators and investors alike.

Investor Strategies: Diversification and Probability Analysis

Amid this regulatory uncertainty, investors are adopting strategies to mitigate risks while capitalizing on the sector's potential. Diversification across multiple events has become a cornerstone tactic. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allow traders to spread capital across 5–10 contracts, reducing exposure to single-outcome volatility. This approach is particularly effective in markets where inefficiencies persist, enabling traders to leverage domain expertise to identify mispriced contracts.

Probability-based analysis is another critical tool. Market prices in prediction markets reflect collective expectations, with a $0.62 price for a political event contract implying a 62% chance of that outcome. Traders are increasingly using these probabilities to arbitrage discrepancies between market assessments and their own forecasts, or to hedge existing positions in traditional financial markets. For example, a trader might short a stock if a prediction market assigns a high probability to a regulatory crackdown on the industry.

Long-Term Positioning: Structural and Regulatory Considerations

Long-term positioning in prediction markets requires a nuanced understanding of structural challenges. Liquidity constraints and market discovery barriers remain significant hurdles, particularly in low-volume contracts. Innovations like bonding curves and automated market makers (AMMs) are emerging to address these issues, but their adoption is still nascent. Investors must also contend with the risk of sudden regulatory shifts, such as the potential Supreme Court ruling in the U.S. or MiCA's final implementation in the EU.

Wealth management firms are beginning to integrate prediction markets into client risk assessments, recognizing their influence on younger investors' behavior. These markets shape expectations about economic and political outcomes, indirectly affecting traditional investment decisions. Advisors are encouraged to document clients' participation in prediction markets and align their strategies with long-term financial goals, treating event contracts similarly to binary options-high-risk, high-reward instruments that require careful oversight.

Implications for Crypto and Speculative Trading

The rise of prediction markets has broader implications for crypto and speculative trading. As these platforms mature, they are increasingly intertwined with blockchain-based financial instruments, creating new opportunities for decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. However, regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets could spill over into the broader crypto sector, particularly if lawmakers conflate them with unregulated gambling or securities trading.

For speculative traders, the key takeaway is to balance innovation with caution. While prediction markets offer unique insights into future events, their regulatory risks necessitate disciplined risk management. This includes avoiding overconcentration in high-volatility contracts, leveraging multi-event portfolios, and staying informed about legal developments in key jurisdictions.

Conclusion

Prediction markets are at a crossroads. Their potential to democratize forecasting and enhance market efficiency is undeniable, but the regulatory risks they face in 2024–2025 demand a strategic, long-term approach. Investors must navigate this landscape with a dual focus: capitalizing on the sector's growth while mitigating the risks of legal fragmentation and sudden policy shifts. As the U.S. Supreme Court weighs in and the EU finalizes MiCA, the coming months will test whether prediction markets can evolve from speculative novelties to legitimate financial instruments-or collapse under the weight of regulatory resistance.