Aumento de las rentabilidades de las obligaciones a largo plazo: catalizador de la reasignación estratégica en rentas fijas y acciones

The U.S. Treasury market has entered a pivotal phase in 2025, marked by a confluence of structural shifts and evolving investor behavior. As long-term Treasury yields climb to multi-year highs, the implications for both fixed income and equity markets are profound. This article examines how rising yields-driven by persistent inflation, fiscal pressures, and policy uncertainty-are reshaping market dynamics and compelling investors to rethink traditional allocation strategies.

The Drivers of Rising Long-Term Treasury Yields

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to 4.02% as of December 2025, reflecting a complex interplay of macroeconomic forces. Persistent inflation, which remains at 3.01% as of September 2025, continues to anchor expectations of higher bond yields. Sticky inflationary pressures, exacerbated by deglobalization trends and potential tariff policies, have pushed the break-even inflation rate to 2.40% by January 2025, signaling heightened inflation expectations over the medium term according to Catalyst Corp analysis.

Monetary policy adjustments have further amplified these trends. While the Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75-4.00% by late 2025, the central bank's cautious approach-projecting an endpoint of 4% for its tightening cycle-has left long-term yields insulated from near-term rate cuts. Meanwhile, structural factors such as a rising term premium (reflecting investor risk aversion) and a widening fiscal deficit have created a self-reinforcing dynamic, pushing yields higher even as short-term rates decline.

Market Structure Shifts: A "Swoosh"-Shaped Yield Curve and Liquidity Dynamics
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has taken on a distinctive "swoosh" shape in 2025, characterized by a sharp decline in short-term yields followed by a steep rise in long-term yields. This inversion of the traditional upward-sloping curve reflects divergent expectations: investors anticipate near-term rate cuts but remain wary of long-term inflation risks and fiscal policy uncertainty according to the St. Louis Fed. The 10-year yield now stands at 4.14%, while the 2-year yield remains lower, steepening the curve to levels not seen since 2022.

This structural shift has been amplified by supply-side pressures. The U.S. Treasury's heavy issuance of long-term debt, coupled with a decline in traditional buyers (such as foreign central banks and domestic banks), has created a supply-demand imbalance. As a result, long-term yields have become less responsive to cyclical economic data and more sensitive to structural factors like fiscal deficits and inflation expectations according to Catalyst Corp analysis.

Liquidity in the Treasury market also saw a temporary deterioration in early 2025, particularly after the announcement of new tariffs in April. Bid-ask spreads widened, and price volatility spiked, though these anomalies have since normalized, with liquidity returning to historical averages.

Sector Rotation in Equities: From Growth to Value

The rise in Treasury yields has triggered a significant rotation in equity markets. Investors are shifting from growth stocks-historically favored in low-rate environments-to value equities, which tend to outperform in higher-yield regimes. Defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples have outperformed, reflecting a flight to quality amid economic uncertainty.

The U.S. equity market, while still trading at 22 times forward earnings, faces headwinds from a slowing economy and inflationary pressures. This has prompted a reassessment of portfolio allocations, with international equities gaining traction. European and Chinese markets, in particular, offer attractive valuations and policy support, while a weaker U.S. dollar has boosted returns for foreign assets.

Strategic Reallocation in Fixed Income: Duration, Quality, and Alternatives

In fixed income, investors are recalibrating duration strategies. The 3- to 7-year segment of the yield curve has emerged as a sweet spot, offering attractive returns with limited duration risk. Quality fixed income-such as investment-grade corporate bonds and municipal securities-is being prioritized for its income generation and potential to reduce portfolio volatility as the Fed's easing cycle progresses according to UBS analysis.

However, traditional diversification benefits between stocks and bonds are eroding due to persistent inflation and policy-driven correlations. To address this, investors are increasingly turning to alternatives. Commodities, digital assets, and liquid alternatives are being deployed to enhance diversification and hedge against inflation and rate volatility according to BlackRock research.

Conclusion: Navigating a New Normal

The rise in long-term Treasury yields is not merely a cyclical phenomenon but a structural shift with lasting implications. For investors, this environment demands a nuanced approach: in equities, a tilt toward value and international markets; in fixed income, a focus on quality and strategic duration management. As the Fed's policy trajectory and fiscal dynamics evolve, the ability to adapt to these shifting market structures will be critical to achieving long-term portfolio resilience.