Rising US Consumer Spending as a Catalyst for Equities and Sectors to Watch

The U.S. consumer has long been the backbone of economic resilience, and 2025 is no exception. With third-quarter GDP growth surging at a 4.3% annual rate, driven largely by robust consumer spending, the data underscores a critical shift in economic dynamics. Despite headwinds like high tariffs and affordability concerns, households continue to allocate resources toward essential and discretionary categories, creating fertile ground for equity investors. This analysis identifies high-conviction opportunities in consumer-driven sectors, leveraging granular spending trends and sector-specific growth projections.

The Services-Driven Engine

Consumer spending in 2025 remains anchored by services, which accounted for 68.9% of total personal consumption expenditures in Q2 2025. This dominance reflects structural shifts in how Americans allocate their budgets, with healthcare, education, and digital services emerging as key drivers. Meanwhile, goods spending-split between durable (10.9%) and nondurable (20.2%) categories-faces a more uneven trajectory. Deloitte forecasts a 3% rise in nondurable goods spending in 2025, outpacing the 2% growth in services, but cautions that 2026 will see a moderation to 1.7% and 1.6%, respectively. This divergence highlights the importance of sector specificity in investment strategies.

The holiday season further amplified these trends. Morning Consult's U.S. Consumer Spending Tracker noted a seasonally adjusted increase in average spending in November 2025, with goods categories-particularly electronics and apparel-seeing a surge. While this aligns with cyclical patterns, it also signals that consumers remain willing to splurge on non-essentials, even amid inflationary pressures.

High-Growth Sectors: Healthcare and AI-Driven Innovation

Among the most compelling opportunities lies in healthcare services, a subcategory of consumer spending poised for transformative growth. Deloitte's 2025 U.S. health care outlook reveals that 69% of health care executives anticipate revenue growth, with 71% expecting improved profitability. This optimism is fueled by three pillars: digital transformation, outpatient care expansion, and AI integration. For instance, 60% of health system executives plan to bolster cybersecurity measures, while one-third prioritize digital platform investments. McKinsey corroborates this, projecting an 8% CAGR for health services and technology (HST) from 2023 to 2028, driven by software platforms and data analytics.

The shift to non-acute care settings is another tailwind. EY-Parthenon notes that health systems are reallocating capital to ambulatory networks and home health services, with large systems leveraging facility sales to fund these expansions. This trend is particularly relevant for investors targeting outpatient care and specialty pharmacy services, which are forecasted to grow at 8% CAGR. Meanwhile, the consumerization of healthcare-via virtual care and personalized wellness products-creates additional entry points for tech-savvy investors.

Beyond healthcare, AI is reshaping broader consumer markets. Schwab Center for Financial Research upgraded Communication Services and Industrials to "Outperform," citing AI's role in enhancing customer experiences and operational efficiency. PwC's analysis of consumer markets highlights AI's potential to unlock $1.2 trillion in value by 2030 through hyper-personalization and supply chain optimization. For equities, this translates to opportunities in cloud infrastructure, AI-driven retail platforms, and robotics-enabled logistics.

Strategic Allocation: Small-Cap, Alternatives, and Global Exposure

While large-cap consumer stocks remain resilient, the Q4 2025 Investment Outlook from Comerica emphasizes underappreciated opportunities in small-cap and international markets. Small-cap firms in niche sectors-such as specialty pharmacy or AI-enabled SaaS-offer higher growth multiples, albeit with elevated risk. Similarly, real assets like real estate and infrastructure are gaining traction as diversifiers, particularly in healthcare-driven commercial properties.

For international exposure, emerging markets present compelling value. Deloitte's consumer products industry outlook underscores the importance of a "price-volume-mix" strategy, which is particularly relevant in regions with rising middle-class consumption. Investors should also consider ESG-aligned opportunities in clean energy and sustainable manufacturing, as these sectors align with both regulatory tailwinds and consumer preferences.

Risks and Rebalancing

Despite the bullish case, investors must remain vigilant. High tariffs and demographic headwinds-such as reduced immigration-could temper long-term growth. Additionally, sectors like general acute care and retail pharmacies face margin pressures due to reimbursement shifts. McKinsey's analysis of healthcare markets highlights these challenges. A disciplined approach to portfolio rebalancing, with a focus on cash flow visibility and sector diversification, is essential.

Conclusion

The 2025 U.S. consumer landscape is defined by resilience and reinvention. From healthcare's digital metamorphosis to AI's pervasive influence, the sectors to watch are those that align with both macroeconomic currents and technological innovation. By prioritizing high-conviction plays in services-driven equities and AI-enabled industries, investors can capitalize on the enduring power of the American consumer.