El auge de los mercados de predicción en las apuestas deportivas: el potencial de trastorno y el caso de inversión de Kalshi y Polymarket

The prediction market sector is undergoing a seismic shift, driven by platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which are redefining the boundaries of sports betting and fan engagement. As of 2025, these platforms have navigated a complex regulatory landscape, achieved explosive trading volumes, and forged strategic partnerships that position them as key players in a rapidly evolving market. This analysis examines the regulatory, market, and financial dynamics shaping their trajectories and evaluates their potential as investment opportunities.

Regulatory Dynamics: A Delicate Balancing Act

The regulatory environment for prediction markets in the U.S. remains a patchwork of federal and state-level oversight. Kalshi, a CFTC-registered derivatives exchange, secured a critical legal victory in 2024, allowing it to operate political event contracts under federal jurisdiction. However, its expansion into sports betting faced a setback when a federal judge ruled that Nevada's state regulators could oversee its sports-related offerings, challenging the notion of exclusive federal control. This ruling highlights the ongoing tension between federal agencies like the CFTC and state gaming authorities, which view prediction markets as potential threats to existing gambling frameworks.

Polymarket, which was blocked by the CFTC in 2022, returned to the U.S. market in 2025 after securing regulatory approval. Its acquisition of QCX LLX and QC Clearing underscores its strategy to align with federal standards while navigating state-level scrutiny. Arizona's gaming director has publicly urged the CFTC to act against sports prediction markets, arguing they circumvent state gaming laws and consumer protections. These regulatory battles are not merely legal hurdles but existential questions about the sector's long-term viability.

Market Dynamics: Diversification and Explosive Growth

Despite regulatory uncertainty, Kalshi and Polymarket have achieved staggering trading volumes. In 2025, the two platforms collectively generated $44 billion in trading volume, with Kalshi accounting for $17.1 billion and Polymarket for $21.5 billion. Sports betting dominates Kalshi's activity (85% of its volume), while Polymarket's portfolio is more diversified, with sports (39%), politics (34%), and crypto (18%) as key categories.

Non-sports markets are emerging as a critical growth driver. Economics and technology markets surged by 905% and 1,637%, respectively, in 2025. This diversification reflects a broader appeal for prediction markets beyond traditional sports betting, particularly among users seeking real-time probability assessments on macroeconomic indicators and policy decisions.

Partnerships are further accelerating adoption. Kalshi's collaboration with StockX to introduce collectibles-based event contracts and Polymarket's multi-year agreement with the UFC as its official prediction market partner signal a shift toward mainstream integration. These moves not only expand their user bases but also enhance credibility by aligning with established brands.

Financial Performance and User Engagement

Q3 2025 data reveals the platforms' financial momentum. Kalshi reported $10 billion in November trading volume, with weekly volumes exceeding $1 billion, while Polymarket saw a 23.8% month-on-month increase, reaching $3.7 billion. Kalshi's appeal to sports fans is evident: 42% of its November volume stemmed from NFL-related contracts. Polymarket, meanwhile, attracts a more politically engaged audience, with 34% of its volume tied to political markets.

User growth is equally impressive. Kalshi's CFTC approval provides it with a unique advantage in the U.S., enabling offerings like "combos" (parlay-like products) that differentiate it from traditional sportsbooks. Polymarket's focus on anonymity and niche markets (e.g., crypto and politics) has cultivated a loyal user base. Both platforms are also experimenting with fan engagement innovations, such as integrating prediction markets into platforms like Underdog and Crypto.com Derivatives.

Investment Case: Opportunities and Risks

The disruptive potential of Kalshi and Polymarket lies in their ability to transform betting into a data-driven, real-time analytics tool. Prediction markets are evolving into financial infrastructure, offering institutional investors insights into market sentiment on everything from interest rate decisions to corporate earnings. This shift could unlock new revenue streams, such as licensing probability data to media outlets or financial firms.

However, risks persist. Regulatory fragmentation-particularly state-level challenges-could stifle growth. For example, Nevada's ruling on sports betting contracts may prompt other states to assert jurisdiction, creating operational complexity. Additionally, liquidity constraints in binary markets and the risk of insider trading in corporate/economic markets remain unresolved issues.

Conclusion

Kalshi and Polymarket are at the forefront of a paradigm shift in sports betting and fan engagement. Their regulatory milestones, explosive trading volumes, and strategic partnerships position them as leaders in a sector poised for mainstream adoption. While challenges like state-level oversight and liquidity constraints persist, their ability to innovate and diversify into non-sports markets strengthens their long-term outlook. For investors, these platforms represent a high-conviction opportunity to capitalize on the convergence of finance, technology, and entertainment.