El auge y la caída de los “criptowhales”: Lecciones sobre volatilidad y gestión de riesgos

The crypto market of 2023–2025 has been a theater of extremes, where leveraged trading strategies by crypto whales-large investors with significant capital-have amplified both gains and losses. These players, wielding multi-million-dollar positions in Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and meme coins, have become pivotal in shaping market dynamics. Yet their actions, often driven by macroeconomic shifts and psychological biases, reveal critical lessons for retail investors navigating volatile markets.

Leveraged Trading: A Double-Edged Sword

Leveraged trading allows whales to amplify returns by borrowing capital, but it also magnifies risks. In 2025, a whale built a $243 million leveraged short position across BTC, ETH, and Solana (SOL), using 10x, 15x, and 20x leverage respectively. This bearish bet reflected a strategic view on market fundamentals but exposed the whale to catastrophic losses had prices reversed. Conversely, another whale reversed a short position to establish 15x leveraged longs in BTC and ETH, reducing unrealized losses from $10 million to $3.1 million. These cases underscore the duality of leverage: it can rescue or destroy capital depending on timing and market direction.

Meme coins, however, present even higher stakes. A whale invested $8 million across 11 meme tokens, including Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, with the position later valued at $13.76 million. While this bet capitalized on speculative fervor, it also exposed the whale to extreme volatility. For instance, during the October 2025 U.S. tariff announcement on Chinese software imports, meme coins like Dogecoin plummeted 50% in minutes, wiping out $19 billion in leveraged positions. A whale address, 0x09D4, sold 56,569 HYPE tokens at a $103,000 loss, illustrating the perils of averaging down in illiquid assets.

Macroeconomic Shifts: Catalysts for Chaos

Macroeconomic events have repeatedly triggered cascading liquidations. In July 2025, Ethereum rebounded sharply due to tokenization and stablecoin adoption, drawing $4.7 billion in net inflows to spot ETPs. However, a major whale's withdrawal of ETH spiked borrowing rates, highlighting liquidity risks. Similarly, the October 2025 tariff shock caused smaller memecoins to lose 80–99% of their value, as retail-driven hype collapsed under macroeconomic pressure.

Bitcoin and Ethereum, though more resilient, were not immune. A whale who shorted 255 BTC faced $6 million in unrealized losses as the market rallied, while another closed a 40x leveraged BTC short for a $85,380 profit. These outcomes reflect the unpredictable interplay between macroeconomic trends-such as interest rate changes and regulatory actions-and leveraged positions.

Behavioral Traps: The Psychology of Averaging Down

Averaging down-adding to losing positions to lower the average cost-has proven disastrous for many whales. The ME2F framework, introduced in a 2025 study, highlights the fragility of politically themed memecoins like TRUMP and MELANIA, which saw extreme price swings due to sentiment-driven speculation. A whale liquidated 307.27 million PUMP tokens for $1.73 million, locking in a $582,000 loss after buying them at a higher price just nine days earlier. This exemplifies how overconfidence and the sunk-cost fallacy can lead to margin calls and liquidations.

Institutional players, too, face behavioral risks. A bear whale closed a $70.72 million BTC short with a $14,380 profit, demonstrating strategic adaptability. Yet such precision is rare; most whales struggle to balance risk and reward, especially in meme coins where fundamentals are absent.

Lessons for Retail Investors

For retail investors, the crypto whale saga offers three key takeaways: 1. Avoid Over-Leveraging: High leverage (e.g., 20x) can amplify gains but often leads to liquidations during volatility. Retail traders should prioritize low-leverage positions or hedging strategies according to whale behavior analysis. 2. Diversify and Diversify: Whale strategies using multiple wallets for different purposes (e.g., low-leverage trades, arbitrage) highlight the importance of diversification. 3. Understand Macro Risks: Macroeconomic events like interest rate hikes or regulatory actions can erase leveraged gains overnight. Investors must monitor these factors and adjust positions accordingly.

Conclusion

The rise and fall of crypto whales in 2023–2025 reveal a market where leverage, macroeconomic shifts, and behavioral biases collide. While some whales navigated volatility with calculated reversals and diversified strategies, others succumbed to the allure of averaging down or over-leveraging. For retail investors, the lesson is clear: volatility is inevitable, but disciplined risk management can turn the tide.