¿Es el cierre de Rigetti Computing una oportunidad de compra estratégica en el sector de la computación cuántica?

The recent 42% selloff in Rigetti Computing (RGTI) stock during November 2025 has sparked debate among investors about whether the decline represents a value-driven opportunity in the high-risk, high-growth quantum computing sector. While the company's Q3 2025 earnings report-marked-by a 18% year-over-year revenue drop to $1.95 million and a $201 million net loss-has raised red flags, according to reports, its long-term technological ambitions and the explosive growth potential of the quantum computing industry warrant a nuanced evaluation. This analysis explores whether Rigetti's selloff aligns with the principles of value investing in speculative tech innovation, balancing financial risks against sector-specific catalysts.

Financial Challenges and Valuation Concerns

Rigetti's Q3 performance underscored its struggle to translate quantum computing R&D into sustainable revenue. The $149 million non-cash derivative warrant expense and $15 million in R&D costs contributed to a net loss that widened despite a $350 million equity offering in Q2 2025. A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis further highlights the disconnect between Rigetti's current valuation and its cash flow trajectory, suggesting the stock is approximately 87.3% overvalued. Additionally, the company's free cash flow burned $19.7 million in Q3, raising concerns about its ability to fund operations without continuous capital raises. According to Nasdaq reporting, this trend has persisted despite the company's liquidity.

However, Rigetti's balance sheet remains a critical differentiator. With $600 million in liquidity, no debt, and a current ratio of 39.22, the company has the financial flexibility to weather near-term headwinds. This liquidity, combined with its lack of debt, provides a buffer against the volatility inherent in speculative tech sectors. Yet, the absence of concrete cost-cutting measures-despite operating expenses of $22.1 million in Q1 2025 against $1.5 million in revenue-suggests a need for operational discipline to align with its long-term vision.

Competitive Position and Technological Momentum

Rigetti's core strength lies in its full-stack quantum computing approach, which positions it as a key player in the race for quantum advantage. The company's 2025 R&D roadmap includes a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system with 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity, a critical milestone for error correction. Its 36-qubit Cepheus-1-36Q system, which achieved a 2x reduction in error rates, demonstrates progress in overcoming technical barriers.

Partnerships further bolster Rigetti's competitive position. Collaborations with C-DAC in India and Montana State University, as well as support for NVIDIA's NVQLink platform, highlight its role in advancing hybrid quantum-classical systems. A $5.8 million contract with the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) to develop superconducting quantum networking, also underscores its relevance, to defense and national security applications. Meanwhile, the planned Italian subsidiary, signals geographic expansion, which could diversify its revenue streams.

Sector Dynamics and Long-Term Growth Potential

The quantum computing sector itself is at an inflection point. According to McKinsey, the global market size in 2025 is estimated at $1.8–$3.5 billion, with a projected CAGR of 32.7% to reach $5.3 billion by 2029. Aggressive forecasts suggest the market could surge to $20.2 billion by 2030, driven by venture capital inflows (over $2 billion in 2024) and hardware breakthroughs like Google's Willow chip and IBM's Quantum Starling system. According to Spinkuanta, the industry is experiencing rapid commercialization.

Rigetti's position in this ecosystem is both an opportunity and a risk. While its modular architecture and hybrid systems align with industry trends, the sector's reliance on speculative investor sentiment remains a vulnerability. As noted by Yahoo Finance, Rigetti scores 0/6 on standard valuation checks, reflecting the disconnect between its current valuation and near-term profitability. However, the sector's long-term potential-particularly in pharmaceuticals, finance, and materials science-suggests that companies like Rigetti could benefit from a shift in risk appetite.

Analyst Price Targets and Market Sentiment

Analyst price targets for Rigetti are mixed, reflecting divergent views on its trajectory. Jefferies initiated coverage with a Hold rating and $30.00 target, while Benchmark lowered its target to $40.00 but maintained a Buy rating. B. Riley Securities raised its target to $35, and Needham reiterated a Buy rating with an $18 target. The consensus price target of $26.50 implies approximately 40% downside from Rigetti's November 2025 closing price of $25.48, but this assumes a continuation of current trends rather than a sector rebound.

The broader market's sensitivity to macroeconomic factors-such as interest rate decisions and U.S.-China trade dynamics-adds another layer of uncertainty. However, the stock's 110.3% gain over the past year suggests that investor sentiment can swing rapidly, particularly as fund managers position for 2026.

Strategic Considerations for Value Investors

For value-driven investors, Rigetti's selloff presents a paradox: a company with strong liquidity and technological momentum, yet burdened by unprofitability and overvaluation. The key question is whether its long-term potential in quantum computing justifies the near-term risks.

1. Catalysts for Rebound: A shift in risk appetite, breakthroughs in error correction, or expanded commercial contracts (e.g., AFRL), could reignite investor confidence. The sector's projected growth to $72 billion by 2035, also supports a long-term bullish case.
2. Downside Risks: Continued cash burn, competition from better-capitalized rivals like IBM and Google, and macroeconomic volatility could exacerbate the selloff.
3. Valuation Realism: Rigetti's DCF analysis and 0/6 valuation score suggest caution, but its balance sheet provides a floor for the stock.

Conclusion

Rigetti Computing's selloff reflects the inherent volatility of investing in speculative, high-growth tech. While its financials and valuation metrics are concerning, the company's technological progress, strategic partnerships, and the quantum computing sector's explosive growth potential create a compelling case for patient, risk-tolerant investors. For those who can stomach the near-term risks and align with the sector's long-term trajectory, Rigetti's selloff may represent a strategic buying opportunity-provided the company executes on its R&D roadmap and secures sustainable revenue streams.