Premio de valoración de Rigetti Computing: ¿promesa cuántica o burbuja especulativa?

The quantum computing sector has long been a magnet for speculative fervor, but few companies have captured investor imagination-and controversy-as intensely as Rigetti Computing (RGTI). With a price-to-book ratio of 24.59 according to financial data and a price-to-sales ratio exceeding 1,000 as reported, Rigetti's valuation defies conventional metrics. Yet, in a market projected to grow to $72 billion by 2035, the question remains: Is this premium justified by Rigetti's long-term potential, or does it signal a precarious overvaluation?

Financials: A Tale of Promises and Losses

Rigetti's third-quarter 2025 results underscore the tension between ambition and execution. The company reported $1.9 million in revenue, a 18% decline from prior periods, while incurring a net loss of $201.0 million as disclosed in its financial release. This loss, however, was largely driven by non-cash accounting adjustments, masking operational inefficiencies. Despite holding $558.9 million in cash and equivalents as reported, Rigetti's burn rate-exacerbated by R&D investments in its 150+ qubit roadmap-raises concerns about sustainability.

Analysts note that Rigetti's valuation multiples, particularly its P/B ratio of 22.8x according to market analysis, are far above the US Semiconductor industry average of 3.4x as per financial benchmarks. This disconnect is not unique to Rigetti; quantum computing firms broadly trade at premiums due to their nascent commercialization stage. However, the absence of profitability-Rigetti's net income margin is -2,100%-heightens execution risks.

Strategic Positioning: Partnerships and Roadmaps

Rigetti's defense of its valuation hinges on its technological roadmap and strategic alliances. The company plans to deploy a 150+ qubit system by late 2026 and a 1,000+ qubit system by 2027, with fidelity improvements that could position it as a leader in hybrid quantum-classical systems. Its collaboration with NVIDIA on the NVQLink platform as reported and partnerships with institutions like Montana State University announced and India's C-DAC announced further bolster its ecosystem.

Government contracts also play a pivotal role. A $5.8 million AFRL award for quantum networking as disclosed and $5.7 million in purchase orders for 9-qubit systems as reported highlight Rigetti's ability to secure near-term revenue. Yet, reliance on public-sector funding-a common trait in the quantum sector-introduces uncertainty. As one analyst notes, "Rigetti's commercial viability depends on translating these partnerships into scalable, revenue-generating applications" according to market analysis.

Market Dynamics: Growth vs. Realism

The quantum computing market's projected growth to $72 billion by 2035 (or $20.2 billion by 2030 as forecasted) provides a compelling backdrop. However, Rigetti's position within this landscape is mixed. While its multi-chip architecture and fidelity milestones are impressive, competitors like IonQ and D-Wave are also advancing partnerships in logistics and healthcare as reported. Moreover, the sector's focus on error correction and hybrid systems as noted suggests that universal quantum advantage may remain years away, diluting near-term revenue potential.

Analyst Divergence: Bullish Hopes and Bearish Warnings

The investment community is split. Mizuho remains bullish, citing Rigetti's role in the QCaaS market, while Jefferies warns of "overambitious valuation" and execution risks according to market analysis. This divergence reflects the sector's inherent uncertainty. Rigetti's stock, which surged 105% in six months, has also experienced sharp volatility, including a 48.5% drop in two months as reported, underscoring its speculative nature.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Proposition

Rigetti's valuation is a double-edged sword. On one hand, its roadmap and partnerships align with the quantum computing market's long-term potential. On the other, its financials-characterized by declining revenue and astronomical multiples-highlight the risks of premature optimism. For investors, the key question is whether Rigetti can bridge the gap between its quantum ambitions and commercial reality.

In the absence of near-term profitability, the company's value hinges on its ability to deliver on its 2026-2027 roadmap and secure a dominant position in hybrid quantum systems. Until then, RGTI remains a speculative bet-a high-stakes wager on a future where quantum computing's promise becomes reality.