Rigetti Computing: Una apuesta mal valorada con un plazo límite en 2027

The recent retail buzz around Rigetti is not driven by a new breakthrough, but by a series of discrete events that created a tactical mispricing opportunity. The core catalyst was a missed deadline. In July 2025, the company's CEO stated they were on track to deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system before the end of that year. As of early 2026, no such announcement has been made. This silence, following a clear public commitment, is the primary event that triggered the market's attention.

This technical disappointment was compounded by a second, separate signal: an insider sale. In October 2025, company director Fitzgerald Alissa sold nearly 60,000 shares via a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan. While such plans are routine, they often draw scrutiny when paired with negative news, as they can be perceived as a lack of conviction from those closest to the company's operations.

The market's reaction was immediate and extreme. When news of the missed deadline surfaced, the stock saw message volume on platforms like Stocktwits surge by about 2,000% over the 24 hours. This isn't just a volume spike; it's a signal of a major expectation gap closing. The stock had been on a strong run, gaining about 260% over the year, which likely inflated the valuation premium for future milestones. The missed deadline exposed that premium, leading to a sharp, emotion-driven sell-off.

The bottom line is that these two events-missed technical delivery and an insider sale-created a perfect storm for a tactical mispricing. The market initially overreacted to the news, but the subsequent retail sentiment remained bearish. For a disciplined investor, this presents a setup where the stock's price may have fallen too far relative to the company's underlying technology and long-term potential, especially given recent contract wins. The key is separating the tactical noise of a missed deadline from the longer-term value of a company advancing in a critical field.

The Roadmap: Assessing the 2027 Moat

Rigetti's multi-year strategy is a classic high-stakes bet on technological execution. The company's chiplet-based architecture aims to deliver a 1,000+ qubit system by or around the end of 2027 with an anticipated 99.8% median two-qubit gate fidelity. This roadmap is ambitious, targeting a quantum advantage milestone. The quality of this plan is its strength: a modular, open architecture allows for scaling and integration with partners like NVIDIA. Yet the defensibility of this moat hinges entirely on flawless execution over the next two years.

The financial runway is substantial but the burn rate is steep. The company entered 2026 with a cash position of approximately $600.0 million, providing a buffer. However, this is being consumed at a high, sustained pace. The non-GAAP net loss of $10.7 million per quarter indicates a significant cash burn that will test that runway. While the cash provides time, it does not guarantee success; the market is paying for a perfect outcome.

That perfect outcome is already priced in at an extreme valuation. The stock trades at a trailing price-to-sales ratio of 856. This figure is a stark warning. Historically, even the most promising tech trends see valuations peak in the 30-40 range before settling. A P/S of 856 implies the market has already awarded Rigetti a dominant, durable position in a future quantum computing market that is still years from commercial reality. Any stumble in the 2027 roadmap-missing a fidelity target, delaying a system deployment-would be catastrophic for this valuation.

The bottom line is that the roadmap creates a potential moat, but it is a fragile one. It is vulnerable to the same execution risks that have plagued the sector. The high valuation leaves no room for error, turning a bold technological plan into a high-wire act. For a value investor, the setup is a classic tension between a promising long-term vision and a valuation that demands near-perfect, multi-year execution.

Valuation and Catalysts: The Path to Intrinsic Value

The path to justifying Rigetti's current valuation hinges on a clear sequence of milestones that demonstrate both commercial traction and technological progress. The near-term noise of a volatile stock price, which has seen a sharp retracement from highs, must be separated from these fundamental drivers. The primary catalyst is the company's next earnings report, estimated for Wednesday, March 4, 2026. Investors will be watching for the trajectory of revenue growth and, more critically, trends in gross margin. The company's shift toward a higher-margin, subscription-based Quantum Computing as a Service (QCaaS) model is a key sign of maturity, but the next report will show if this pivot is gaining real momentum.

A major government contract win would provide a significant, near-term revenue boost and serve as a powerful signal of broader adoption. The company's recent $5.8 million Air Force Research Laboratory contract for quantum networking is a positive example, but a larger award, such as a U.S. Department of Energy contract, could dramatically alter the revenue profile. As noted, a single large government deal could swing the hardware and contracts segment significantly, making such announcements a critical watchpoint for the commercialization story.

The next key technical milestone is the deployment of a 150+ qubit system by or around the end of 2026. This is a step toward the ambitious 2027 target of a 1,000+ qubit system. Success here is essential for maintaining credibility in the race for quantum advantage. The company has already delivered on its 2025 target of a 100+ qubit system, demonstrating execution capability. The 2026 target is the next critical proof point that the modular, chiplet-based architecture can scale as promised.

For now, the valuation is anchored in the company's substantial cash runway. With approximately $600 million in cash and investments, Rigetti has the financial flexibility to fund its aggressive roadmap. The path to intrinsic value, therefore, is a two-part journey: first, proving the commercial model with growing, higher-margin revenue; and second, delivering on the technological milestones that justify the long-term potential. The March earnings report is the first major checkpoint on that path.