RGTI Plummets 4.74% Amid Quantum Computing Sector Volatility – What’s Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) plunges 4.74% to $38.33, erasing $2.07 from its value in under 48 hours.
• 52-week high of $58.15 now feels like a distant memory as the stock trades 34% below its peak.
• Dynamic PE ratio of 2,095.87 underscores extreme valuation disconnect with fundamentals.

Quantum computing stocks face renewed scrutiny as Rigetti Computing’s sharp intraday decline sparks questions about sector sustainability. With the stock trading near its 200-day moving average of $15.90 and a $16.9B market cap despite $8M in annual revenue, the selloff reflects a broader recalibration of speculative bets in the sector. Recent news of potential U.S. government equity stakes in quantum firms has created a volatile backdrop, with investors weighing optimism against commercialization risks.

Profit-Taking and Sector-Wide Jitters Trigger Sharp Correction
RGTI’s 4.74% drop follows a week of mixed signals in the quantum computing sector. While the Trump administration’s rumored $10M+ equity stakes in U.S. quantum firms initially drove a 8.5% surge on Thursday, the rally unraveled as investors took profits. The stock’s 35.7% monthly gain has created a fragile momentum, with the high dynamic PE ratio (2,095.87) and $8M in annual revenue highlighting the valuation gap. Additionally, concerns over U.S. export restrictions on quantum tech to China, mentioned in sector news, have amplified risk-off sentiment. The intraday range of $37.80 to $42.93 reflects the tug-of-war between speculative buying and profit-taking.

Quantum Computing Sector Volatility Intensifies as IONQ Dips 6.64%
The quantum computing sector remains a rollercoaster, with sector leader IonQ (IONQ) down 6.64% intraday. Rigetti’s 4.74% decline aligns with broader sector weakness, as investors reassess valuations for companies lacking commercial revenue. While Rigetti’s recent partnership with India’s C-DAC and Montana State University generated optimism, the sector’s reliance on speculative narratives—rather than earnings—has left it vulnerable to sentiment shifts. IONQ’s sharper decline suggests heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic factors, including interest rate uncertainty and regulatory risks.

Bearish Options Play and Technical Divergence Signal Caution
• 200-day MA: $15.896 (far below current price)
• RSI: 46.02 (neutral but trending lower)
• MACD: 3.14 vs. Signal Line 5.04 (bearish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $38.33 near lower band ($27.84)

Technical indicators suggest a short-term bearish bias, with the 200-day MA ($15.90) and 30-day MA ($37.81) creating a wide gap. The RSI’s 46.02 level indicates oversold conditions, but the MACD histogram’s -1.904 suggests momentum is shifting downward. Key support levels at $37.80 (intraday low) and $34.50 (prior September high) are critical to watch. The 137.32% implied volatility on the RGTI20251107P36 put option reflects market uncertainty.

Top Options Picks:
• RGTI20251107P36 (Put):
- Strike: $36 | Expiry: Nov 7 | IV: 137.32% | Delta: -0.339 | Gamma: 0.0397 | Theta: -0.0972 | Turnover: $19,264
- IV (Implied Volatility): High volatility suggests strong bearish expectations
- Delta: Moderate sensitivity to price drops
- Gamma: Slight acceleration in delta as price declines
- Theta: Daily decay of $0.0972
- Turnover: High liquidity ensures easy entry/exit
- Payoff at 5% downside ($36.41): $0.41 per contract
- This put offers a 11.5% price gain potential if RGTI breaks below $37.80.

• RGTI20251107P36.5 (Put):
- Strike: $36.50 | Expiry: Nov 7 | IV: 139.03% | Delta: -0.361 | Gamma: 0.0402 | Theta: -0.0981 | Turnover: $51,187
- IV: Slightly higher than RGTI20251107P36
- Delta: Slightly more sensitive to price drops
- Gamma: Slight edge in delta acceleration
- Theta: Daily decay of $0.0981
- Turnover: Exceptional liquidity
- Payoff at 5% downside ($36.41): $0.09 per contract
- This put offers a 14.02% price gain potential if RGTI breaks below $37.80.

Aggressive bears may consider RGTI20251107P36.5 into a breakdown below $37.80, while RGTI20251107P36 provides a safer entry with higher liquidity.

Backtest Rigetti Computing Stock Performance
Below is the interactive event-study module that summarizes the performance of Rigetti Computing (RGTI.O) after every ≥ 5 % single-day drop since 2022. (The analysis used daily close-to-close returns to approximate an intraday draw-down, and employed the engine’s default 30-trading-day evaluation window.)Key take-aways (high-level):• 489 qualifying plunges were detected in the sample period. • Average cumulative return 30 trading days after a plunge was +27.5 % (benchmark +26.8 %); win-rate hovered around 40-49 % across the window, and none of the horizons reached statistical significance. • In short, a -5 % day for RGTI has not historically created a reliable mean-reversion or momentum edge.You can explore the full day-by-day statistics and distribution plots in the module above.

Quantum Computing’s Bubble Test: RGTI’s $34.50 Support Crucial for Near-Term Outlook
Rigetti Computing’s 4.74% decline reflects a sector-wide recalibration of speculative bets in quantum computing. While the stock’s 35.7% monthly gain and $16.9B valuation suggest lingering optimism, the 2,095.87 dynamic PE ratio and $8M in annual revenue highlight the precariousness of this narrative. Investors must watch the $34.50 support level (prior September high) and the sector leader IONQ’s -6.64% move for directional clues. For those seeking leverage, the RGTI20251107P36.5 put offers a high-conviction bearish play if the stock breaks below $37.80. The November 10 earnings report will be pivotal—any shortfall could accelerate the selloff.