REXR Surges 5.8% on Elliott Stake Revelation: Is This the Catalyst for a REIT Rally?

Summary
• Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR) surges 5.8% to $42.34 amid Bloomberg report of Elliott’s activist stake
• Elliott now ranks among top five shareholders, yet intentions remain opaque
• Industrial REITs sector shows resilience with 4.8% YOY NOI growth
• Options frenzy: 20 contracts traded, including REXR20250919C40 with 114% price change

Rexford Industrial Realty’s (REXR) 5.8% intraday rally has ignited market speculation, driven by Elliott Investment Management’s reported activist stake. With the stock trading at $42.34—up from $40.01 at close—investors are parsing the implications of Elliott’s entry into the top five shareholders. The move contrasts with REXR’s 17.4% underperformance against the -2.4% decline in the US REITs index over the past year. Options activity has spiked, with 20 contracts traded, including the REXR20250919C40 call option surging 114% in value.

Elliott’s Stake Sparks Institutional Frenzy
The 5.8% surge in Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR) is directly attributable to a Bloomberg report revealing that Elliott Investment Management has acquired a significant stake, positioning itself among the top five shareholders. While Elliott’s strategic intentions remain undisclosed, the mere acquisition of a large position has triggered a wave of institutional buying and speculative trading. This follows recent institutional activity, including 403.6% position increases by Northwestern Mutual and MassMutual, while Long Pond Capital LP slashed its holdings by 65.1%. The stock’s intraday range of $41.53 to $42.65 reflects heightened volatility as market participants react to the potential for activist-driven corporate changes.

Industrial REITs Outperform Amid Sector-Wide Resilience
The Industrial REITs sector has demonstrated robust performance, with year-over-year net operating income (NOI) growth at 4.8% and same-store NOI growth at 2.7% as of Q2 2025. Rexford’s 5.8% intraday gain aligns with the sector’s resilience, outpacing the 2.02% rise in sector leader Prologis (PLD). While REXR’s 17.4% annual underperformance contrasts with the sector’s -2.4% decline, the recent rally suggests a potential reversal. Industrial REITs continue to benefit from strong demand for logistics infrastructure, with Rexford’s 5.0% YOY revenue growth in Q2 2025 underscoring its competitive positioning.

Options Playbook: Leveraging REXR’s Volatility with Gamma-Driven Calls
• MACD: 0.846 (bullish divergence from signal line 0.564)
• RSI: 72.6 (overbought territory, but momentum intact)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $42.34 (above upper band $40.67, indicating breakouts)
• 200D MA: $38.09 (price at $42.34, 10.9% above)
• Key Levels: 30D MA at $37.56, 200D MA at $38.09

REXR’s technicals suggest a continuation of its short-term bullish trend, with RSI near overbought levels and MACD divergence signaling potential for further gains. The stock’s 5.8% intraday move has triggered a surge in options activity, with two contracts standing out for their gamma and leverage potential.

Top Option 1: REXR20251017C40
• Contract Code: REXR20251017C40
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $40
• Expiration: 2025-10-17
• IV Ratio: 16.12% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 15.74% (high)
• Delta: 0.8436 (high sensitivity to price)
• Theta: -0.0055 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0903 (high sensitivity to price movement)
• Turnover: 1,545 (liquid)

This call option offers a 15.74% leverage ratio and 0.0903 gamma, making it ideal for capitalizing on REXR’s upward momentum. With a delta of 0.84, it closely tracks the stock’s price, while the moderate theta ensures manageable time decay.

Top Option 2: REXR20251017C45
• Contract Code: REXR20251017C45
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $45
• Expiration: 2025-10-17
• IV Ratio: 25.24% (high)
• Leverage Ratio: 60.70% (very high)
• Delta: 0.2893 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0134 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0842 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 825 (liquid)

This out-of-the-money call offers explosive 60.70% leverage and 0.0842 gamma, ideal for aggressive bulls. While its delta of 0.2893 means it won’t track the stock as closely, the high IV and gamma make it a high-reward play if REXR continues its rally.

Payoff Scenario: Assuming a 5% upside to $44.45, REXR20251017C40 would yield $4.45 per contract (45% gain), while REXR20251017C45 would yield $9.45 (213% gain). Aggressive bulls should consider REXR20251017C45 into a break above $43.50.

Backtest Rexford Industrial Realty Stock Performance
The 6% intraday increase in REXR has historically led to positive short-to-medium-term gains, but with moderate volatility. The 3-Day win rate is 50.74%, the 10-Day win rate is 51.24%, and the 30-Day win rate is 56.53%. While the maximum return during the backtest was 0.58% over 30 days, the overall return was only 0.53% over the same period, indicating some conservative growth potential.

REXR’s Elliott-Driven Rally: A Catalyst for REITs or a Fleeting Spike?
Rexford Industrial Realty’s (REXR) 5.8% surge on Elliott’s stake acquisition signals a potential inflection point for the stock, which has underperformed the sector for 12 months. With technicals favoring continuation and options like REXR20251017C45 offering high leverage, bulls have clear entry points. The Industrial REITs sector’s 4.8% YOY NOI growth and Prologis (PLD)’s 2.02% rise suggest broader tailwinds. Investors should monitor Elliott’s next moves and REXR’s ability to hold above $42.00. If the stock sustains its momentum, the sector leader PLD’s 2.02% gain could foreshadow a broader REIT rally.