El resurgimiento del comercio a gran escala: ¿Por qué la estrategia de Louis Bacon sigue siendo importante en 2025–2026?

The post-volatility environment of 2025–2026 has reignited interest in macro trading, a strategy long associated with navigating unpredictable global markets. At the forefront of this resurgence is Louis Bacon, whose flagship fund at Moore Capital Management delivered a 23% return in 2025, outperforming many peers and underscoring the enduring relevance of macro strategies in a world defined by geopolitical tensions, divergent monetary policies, and asset-class dispersion. As macro hedge funds increasingly outshine traditional long-only portfolios, Bacon's approach offers a blueprint for capitalizing on the complexities of the current era.

Bacon's Strategic Adaptability in a Shifting Landscape

Louis Bacon's success in 2025 reflects a blend of tactical agility and long-term vision. His portfolio adjustments in late 2025- such as adding stakes in Nu Holdings Ltd, Citigroup Inc, and Futu Holdings Ltd-highlight a focus on financials and fintech, sectors poised to benefit from regulatory shifts and digital transformation. Simultaneously, he reduced exposure to the S&P MidCap 400 ETF and exited positions in JPMorgan Chase & Co and Honeywell International Inc, signaling a pivot toward concentrated, high-conviction bets. This recalibration aligns with Moore Capital's broader evolution from a global macro hedge fund to one emphasizing large-cap U.S. equities and emerging technologies, a move that mirrors industry trends toward sector-specific alpha generation.

Bacon's historical performance further validates his approach. Since 1990, his flagship fund, Moore Global Investments, has achieved a 31% annualized return after fees, demonstrating a rare consistency in managing macroeconomic risk across cycles. This track record is particularly notable in 2025, when macro strategies thrived amid surging U.S. stocks, volatile bonds, and surging precious metals-a testament to the firm's ability to balance directional bets with hedging.

Why Macro Funds Thrive in the Post-Volatility Era

The current environment, shaped by U.S. President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs and divergent central bank policies, has created fertile ground for macro strategies. Discretionary macro funds have outperformed systematic trend-followers in 2025, capitalizing on unpredictable policy shifts and asset-price swings. For instance, EDL Capital and Rokos Capital Management achieved 24% and 9.5% returns, respectively, by leveraging their flexibility to take both long and short positions in response to geopolitical and economic catalysts.

Interest rate dynamics have also amplified macro hedge funds' advantages. A normalized rate environment (3–4%) has boosted short rebate yields, enhancing returns for funds with significant short exposure. Additionally, higher rates have increased market dispersion, creating opportunities for skilled managers to exploit mispricings in equities, commodities, and currencies. This dispersion is particularly beneficial for global macro strategies, which thrive in environments where correlations between asset classes break down.

Geopolitical uncertainty further strengthens the case for macro strategies. Tensions between the U.S. and China, coupled with global elections and trade policy shifts, have driven volatility in currencies, commodities, and equities. In such a landscape, macro funds like Moore Capital can profit from directional bets on emerging market bonds, energy stocks, and financials while hedging against downside risks through currency and interest rate positions.

Macro Funds as Diversifiers in a Correlated World

The breakdown of traditional 60/40 portfolios-once reliant on the negative correlation between equities and bonds-has elevated the role of macro hedge funds as diversifiers. Persistent inflation, deglobalization, and tight labor markets have eroded the reliability of fixed-income as a safe haven. In contrast, macro strategies offer uncorrelated returns by leveraging their ability to trade across asset classes and regions. For example, Moore Capital's 2025 portfolio included a mix of U.S. equities, emerging market bonds, and energy stocks, reflecting a diversified approach to capturing growth while mitigating sector-specific risks.

Moreover, macro funds provide "crisis alpha"-the ability to generate positive returns during market downturns. In 2025, as U.S. stocks surged and bonds fluctuated, discretionary macro managers navigated the volatility by adjusting leverage and hedging exposure to interest rate-sensitive assets. This adaptability is critical in 2026, where rising equity-bond correlations and K-shaped market divergences are expected to persist.

The Road Ahead: Macro Strategies in 2026

As 2026 unfolds, macro hedge funds are poised to remain central to investor portfolios. Institutional allocators are increasingly adopting diversified hedge fund strategies-combining global macro, equity long/short, and event-driven approaches-to balance risk and return. For Bacon and peers like Bridgewater Associates, the challenge lies in maintaining agility amid evolving central bank policies and geopolitical crosscurrents.

The normalization of interest rates and the structural tailwinds from short rebate yields will likely sustain macro strategies' appeal. However, success will depend on managers' ability to adapt to sector-specific opportunities, such as AI-driven equities and sustainable energy investments- areas where Moore Capital's 2023 launch of Renown Capital Partners signals a forward-looking stance.

Conclusion

Louis Bacon's 2025 performance reaffirms the value of macro trading in a post-volatility world. By combining strategic portfolio adjustments, a focus on high-conviction sectors, and a long-term perspective, his approach exemplifies how macro hedge funds can thrive amid uncertainty. As 2026 unfolds, the lessons from Bacon's strategy-agility, diversification, and a deep understanding of macroeconomic shifts-will remain critical for investors seeking to navigate an increasingly fragmented and volatile global market.