Restaurant Brands QSR's Mixed Candlestick Signals and Bullish MA Alignment Signal Volatility Amid Key Support/Resistance Levels

Candlestick Theory

Restaurant Brands (QSR) has exhibited mixed candlestick patterns in recent sessions. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged on 2025-10-07 (close at $67.26), suggesting potential short-term weakness, but this was followed by a bullish harami on 2025-10-08 (close at $67.3), indicating consolidation. Key support levels are forming near $64.14 (2025-09-30) and $62.5 (2025-09-02), while resistance is clustered at $68.87 (2025-10-06) and $69.56 (2025-08-25). A break above $69.56 could trigger further bullish momentum, while a drop below $64.14 may signal a deeper correction.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day (currently ~$66.5), 100-day (~$66.2), and 200-day (~$65.8) moving averages align in a bullish configuration, with the 50-day above the 100-day and 200-day, suggesting an uptrend. However, the price has recently dipped below the 50-day MA, indicating potential near-term volatility. A retest of the 50-day MA (~$66.5) could act as dynamic support. The 200-day MA remains a critical long-term trend indicator, and a sustained close above it would reinforce the bullish case.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD line crossed above the signal line on 2025-10-02, forming a golden cross that historically signals upward momentum. However, the RSI-based KDJ indicator (K at 62, D at 58) shows the stock is approaching overbought territory (RSI at 60), suggesting caution for short-term traders. Divergence between MACD and KDJ could hint at a potential pullback, particularly if volume fails to confirm the recent rally.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands widening to a range of $64.1–$69.3. The price has tested the upper band on multiple occasions, most recently on 2025-10-06, but has not yet broken through decisively. A sustained move above the upper band would suggest a breakout, while a retest of the lower band (~$64.1) could act as a support level. The bands’ contraction in early August (range: $65.0–$66.3) indicated a low-volatility phase before the recent surge.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume spiked on 2025-08-22 ($63.4 close) and 2025-08-07 ($65.07 close), confirming key price inflections. However, volume has moderated in recent sessions, with the 2025-10-08 rally occurring on relatively low volume (3.02M shares). This may suggest waning conviction in the bullish move. Conversely, a volume surge on a break above $69.56 would validate renewed buying interest.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI (14-period) has oscillated between overbought (>70) and oversold (<30) conditions multiple times in the past year. A recent overbought reading (RSI ~60 as of 2025-10-08) suggests caution, though it has not yet breached the 70 threshold. Historical overbought levels (e.g., RSI ~80 in May 2025) often preceded corrections, but the absence of a clear bearish divergence (price rising while RSI falls) implies the trend may persist.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the 2025-04-03 low ($64.83) to the 2025-05-27 high ($71.6) include 23.6% at $67.5, 38.2% at $66.9, and 50% at $66.5. The current price (~$67.3) is near the 23.6% retracement level, suggesting potential resistance. A break above this could target the 38.2% level (~$66.9), while a drop below the 50% level would signal a deeper correction toward the 61.8% retracement (~$65.2).

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of the MACD golden cross strategy (buying on 12-day MA crossing above 26-day MA and holding for 10 days) from 2022 to 2025-10-08 yielded a 52.67% total return versus the benchmark’s 47.65%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.03 and 0% max drawdown. This aligns with the technical indicators’ confluence of bullish momentum (MACD, Fibonacci) and controlled risk (Bollinger Bands, volume). However, the strategy’s effectiveness may diminish if RSI breaches overbought levels or if the 200-day MA fails to hold.