Resiliencia del gasto de consumo de EE. UU. A pesar de la volatilidad económica: inversión en sectores enfocados en el consumidor como una estrategia de contrapartida ante la incertidumbre macroeconómica

The U.S. consumer has long been a cornerstone of economic resilience, even in the face of persistent inflation, rising tariffs, and labor market uncertainty. From 2023 to 2025, real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew 3.3% year over year as of March 2025, though this momentum is expected to wane amid cooling labor markets and policy-driven inflation. For investors, the question is no longer whether consumer spending will endure but how it will adapt-and which sectors will serve as reliable hedges against macroeconomic volatility.

The Paradox of Resilience: Splurging Amid Cautious Spending

Consumer behavior in 2025 reflects a duality: while lower- and middle-income households tighten belts, high-income consumers continue to prioritize luxury goods, travel, and premium experiences. This phenomenon, dubbed the "lipstick effect," has expanded beyond beauty to encompass discretionary splurges. A striking 39% of consumers reported plans to indulge in 2025 despite economic uncertainty, a trend amplified by the 50% of U.S. spending controlled by high-income households.

However, this resilience is uneven. Holiday spending plans in November 2025 saw a record decline in average gift budgets ($778), with lower-income households cutting spending by 41% between October and November. Tariff-induced price hikes-particularly in appliances, toys, and home furnishings-have further strained discretionary budgets.

Yet, the same tariffs have paradoxically bolstered luxury sectors, as affluent consumers trade down to "quiet luxury" and experiential spending.

Sectoral Divergence: Discretionary vs. Staples

The 2023–2025 tariff regime has created stark divergences between consumer sectors. Consumer Discretionary has borne the brunt of margin compression, with operating margins expected to drop 1.5%-the largest hit among all sectors. Automakers like Tesla, General Motors, and Ford have collectively faced hundreds of millions in tariff-related costs, while retailers and restaurants grapple with eroding profit margins. Morgan Stanley forecasts nominal consumer spending growth of 3.7% in 2025, down from 5.7% in 2024, underscoring the sector's vulnerability to macroeconomic headwinds.

In contrast, Consumer Staples has demonstrated defensive resilience. Despite underperforming in 2023 and 2024 due to high interest rates and AI-driven investor sentiment, the sector rebounded with double-digit gains in 2024. Its stability stems from inelastic demand for essentials like packaged food and household goods. While tariffs have raised costs for imported products (e.g., alcohol from Mexico), the sector's domestic production base provides a buffer. Analysts project improved performance in 2025 as the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle eases borrowing costs.

Hedging Potential: Luxury as a Macro Hedge

Luxury goods, often dismissed as cyclical, have shown surprising hedging potential in 2025. Global luxury spending stabilized at €1.44 trillion, with affluent consumers shifting toward wellness, travel, and exclusive experiences. This trend aligns with the "lipstick effect," where 39% of consumers plan to splurge despite economic caution. However, luxury brands face dual pressures: tariffs on imported goods and a shift toward understated, value-conscious consumption.

Yet, the sector's adaptability offers opportunities. AI-driven personalization is enabling brands to optimize supply chains and target niche markets, while second-hand luxury markets-used by 60% of U.S. and European consumers-reflect a broader shift toward sustainable consumption. For investors, luxury's resilience lies in its ability to balance exclusivity with accessibility, particularly in emerging markets like the Middle East and Asia-Pacific.

Strategic Implications for Investors

The 2023–2025 period highlights a critical investment thesis: diversification across consumer sectors can mitigate macroeconomic risks. Consumer Staples offers downside protection during downturns, while luxury goods and experiential spending provide upside potential in a splurge-driven environment. However, investors must remain cautious:
- Consumer Discretionary remains vulnerable to labor market shifts and tariff-driven inflation.
- Luxury sectors require careful scrutiny of brand adaptability and regional demand dynamics.
- Essential consumption is poised to benefit from rate cuts and stable demand, but input costs from tariffs could erode margins.

In a world of persistent uncertainty, the U.S. consumer's duality-cautious yet indulgent, price-sensitive yet brand-loyal-demands a nuanced approach. By hedging across defensive staples and resilient discretionary niches, investors can navigate volatility while capitalizing on the enduring power of consumer spending.