Renzo/USDC Market Overview (REZUSDC) 2025-10-22

• Price dropped 2.4% over 24 hours, closing near session low at 0.01045
• High volatility observed mid-session with a 0.8% range swing post 20:00 ET
• Notional turnover spiked to $3.1 million during 21:00–21:30 ET
• Volume increased 10x from 00:45 to 01:00 ET with strong buy-side pressure
• Overbought conditions reversed mid-session as RSI fell below 30

Renzo/USDC (REZUSDC) opened at $0.01159 on 2025-10-21 12:00 ET and closed at $0.01045 as of 2025-10-22 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was $0.01191, and the low was $0.01020. Total volume reached 31.08 million, with a notional turnover of $3.24 million, indicating heightened interest during the second half of the session.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed bearish dominance with a consistent descent from the 0.01191 high to the 0.01020 support level. A key bearish engulfing pattern was observed at 19:30 ET, signaling continued downward momentum. A potential support level is forming around 0.01044, as price bounced twice from that level, suggesting a short-term floor. No significant bullish patterns were identified, though a doji formed at 04:15 ET, hinting at temporary indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price in a bearish divergence, reinforcing the downward bias. On a longer time frame, the 50/100/200-day moving averages are unavailable due to the limited historical data available for REZUSDC. Short-term traders may use the 20-period MA as a dynamic resistance level that has been tested multiple times during the decline.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained negative for most of the session, with a bearish crossover occurring at 18:00 ET. The histogram expanded during the 21:00–21:30 ET period, indicating growing bearish momentum. The RSI dropped below 30 mid-session, entering oversold territory, but failed to generate a convincing reversal. This suggests that sellers remain in control and that any bounce is likely to be short-lived.

Bollinger Bands

Price remained tightly within the Bollinger Bands for the first half of the session, indicating low volatility. However, a significant expansion occurred after 20:00 ET, coinciding with the sharp decline. The 20-period bands widened from a 0.00009 range to a 0.00021 range, highlighting the surge in trading activity. Price settled near the lower band at close, maintaining bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply from 00:45 to 01:00 ET and again at 04:30 ET, with turnover surging to $3.1 million during the 21:00–21:30 ET period. The divergence between volume and price is notable—while volume increased, price did not reverse, suggesting that the selling pressure is still intact. The most active 15-minute interval was at 05:30 ET, with a 13.3 million volume, but the price continued to fall.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent 15-minute swing from the high of 0.01191 to the low of 0.01020, price settled just below the 61.8% retracement level at 0.01056. This level could serve as a potential resistance if the trend reverses. A 38.2% retracement at 0.01101 has acted as a minor resistance in the last two candlesticks. Traders should watch this level for signs of a possible bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-based overbought strategy described in the provided text could be applied by monitoring the RSI line for a drop below 30. If price fails to reverse and continues downward, it could signal a continuation of the bearish trend. A potential trade setup would be to enter a short position when RSI falls below 30 and price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Stop-loss could be placed above the 38.2% retracement, while the take-profit target would aim for the 0.01020 low. Further confirmation from volume and MACD divergence would strengthen the signal.