Render/Tether Market Overview

• Price dropped sharply from $3.96 to $3.66 amid strong bearish momentum.
• Volume surged over 600,000 USD at the low, but failed to trigger a rebound.
• RSI and MACD both signaled oversold conditions but lacked follow-through buying.
• Bollinger Bands widened as volatility spiked, with price testing lower band support.
• Fibonacci retracements highlight potential short-term levels at $3.69 and $3.73.

Opening Summary

Render/Tether (RENDERUSDT) opened at $3.95 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of $3.968 and a low of $3.575 before closing at $3.66 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 1,373,649.86 USD, with a turnover of 338,692.24 RENDER tokens traded.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours revealed a significant bearish breakdown from $3.96 to $3.575. The most notable structure was a large bearish engulfing pattern at $3.92–$3.86 around 03:15–04:00 ET, signaling a shift in momentum. A doji formed near $3.84–$3.85 late in the session, hinting at indecision or potential short-term support. Key resistance appears to be $3.92–$3.96, while support is forming near $3.66–$3.69.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA into bearish territory, confirming the downtrend. The 50-period MA on the daily chart also dropped below the 200-period MA, indicating a possible continuation of the bearish bias in the near term.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned strongly bearish, with both the line and signal trending downward and remaining below zero. RSI hit oversold territory below 30 at $3.66, but no significant rebound occurred, indicating weak follow-through buying. While this may hint at a possible short-term bounce, the bearish momentum remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked as Bollinger Bands expanded, with price falling near the lower band at $3.66. This suggests heightened bearish pressure. The contraction of bands earlier in the session had hinted at a potential breakout, which indeed occurred to the downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically around 06:15 ET when price dropped from $3.75 to $3.699, indicating a large sell-off. However, the subsequent price action showed little follow-through, despite continued high turnover. Price and volume appear to be aligning on the bearish side, with no divergence observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the high of $3.968 to the low of $3.575 highlight key levels: 38.2% at $3.73 and 61.8% at $3.69. These could serve as potential support levels for short-term buyers. The 50% level at $3.77 may act as a resistance if the price manages to retrace.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA (death cross), confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and MACD below zero. Stops could be placed just above key resistance levels (e.g., $3.73–$3.77), with targets near the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $3.69 or lower. If RSI moves back above 30 with a bullish MACD crossover and strong volume, the trade would be exited early, with the assumption that the bearish momentum has waned.