Render/Tether Market Overview (2025-11-04)

Summary• Price action shows significant bearish pressure with a 13.8% decline from 2.04 to 1.912.• Volatility spiked during the night session with a large bearish candle on 2025-11-04 at 06:15 ET.• RSI dipped into oversold territory, suggesting potential near-term rebound but structural bearishness remains.

RENDERUSDT opened at 2.04 on 2025-11-03 12:00 ET, peaked at 2.084, and closed at 1.912 on 2025-11-04 12:00 ET. The pair fell 13.8%, marking one of the largest daily declines in recent cycles. Total 24-hour volume was 1,444,623.15, while notional turnover reached $2,592,157.82. The bearish bias is reinforced by strong distribution at key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern on 2025-11-03 21:45 ET, signaling a short-term top. The following 15-minute candles showed a descending triangle with a clear breakdown at 1.946. A key support level was tested at 1.912, where price found temporary relief. A doji appeared at 1.925, indicating indecision.

Moving Averages

Short-term indicators (20/50-period) on the 15-minute chart remain bearish, with price trading below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period line is approaching 2.00 from above, suggesting the 50-day line may act as overhead resistance in the near term. The 200-day MA at ~2.10 remains a strong long-term resistance.

MACD & RSI

The RSI collapsed to 28, entering oversold territory, suggesting a potential bounce, though structural bearishness remains. The MACD histogram has been negative for over 30 candles, with bearish momentum still in place. Divergence has not yet emerged, implying that the RSI could retest 30–35 before any meaningful bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the night session as price broke through the lower band. Price has since stayed within the bands, suggesting a return to consolidation. A retest of the 1.92–1.94 range could trigger a Bollinger Band squeeze, indicating potential for a breakout or sharp reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 06:15 ET with a large bearish candle, indicating strong selling pressure. Turnover also surged during this time, confirming the move. Price and volume action diverged slightly near 1.94–1.95 as price found support without corresponding volume, signaling potential for a bounce or a false breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 1.946–2.043 swing shows price testing the 61.8% retracement level at 1.976. Price broke below the 50% level at 1.995 and is now near the 38.2% retracement at 1.936, which could act as a support. A break below 1.912 would target the next retracement at 1.903.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy relies on MACD divergence for short entries, a method that requires accurate historical data. A recent attempt to retrieve MACD data for Render/Tether failed due to a ticker mismatch, likely because the system is not recognizing RENDERUSDT as the correct symbol. This could be resolved by using an alternative symbol like RNDRUSDT, commonly used on platforms like Binance. Once the correct ticker is confirmed, the MACD series can be retrieved, allowing the backtest to proceed. The current analysis shows bearish momentum and divergences in the price-volume relationship, aligning with the proposed MACD-based strategy.