El cruce de caminos regulatorios de los mercados de predicciones y las apuestas políticas

The rise of prediction markets and political betting has ignited a global regulatory tug-of-war, with jurisdictions grappling to balance innovation, consumer protection, and the risks of unregulated financial instruments. For investors, this evolving landscape presents both high-stakes opportunities and significant legal uncertainties. As platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood navigate a patchwork of state, national, and international laws, the sector's future hinges on how regulators define-and enforce-the boundaries between speculative trading, gambling, and financial derivatives.

The U.S.: A Legal Labyrinth of Federal and State Conflicts

The United States has emerged as the epicenter of regulatory experimentation and conflict. Platforms such as Kalshi, which operates under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), have faced cease-and-desist orders from states like Maryland and Nevada, which argue that sports and political betting contracts constitute unlicensed gambling. Meanwhile, New Jersey and Nevada courts have granted preliminary injunctions allowing Kalshi to continue operations, creating a fragmented legal environment.

State legislatures are now drafting their own frameworks. New York's ORACLE Act, for instance, proposes age restrictions, responsible gaming measures, and outright bans on sports and political betting markets. Pennsylvania, by contrast, is conducting hearings to integrate prediction markets into existing gaming laws. These divergent approaches highlight a critical risk for investors: the potential for conflicting state rulings to escalate to the U.S. Supreme Court, where the question of federal preemption could determine the sector's fate.

Despite legal challenges, the market's growth is undeniable. In 2025, Polymarket and Kalshi reported combined trading volumes exceeding $7.7 billion, driven largely by sports and novelty contracts. However, analysts estimate a 40% risk of regulatory bans within the next year, which could reduce liquidity by 27-30% and erase $2-3 billion in annual activity. For investors, this volatility underscores the need for hedging strategies and a close watch on judicial and legislative trends.

The UK: Binary Options Ban and Regulatory Ambiguity

The United Kingdom's regulatory stance on prediction markets is shaped by its 2019 ban on binary options for retail clients, enforced by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). While platforms like Robinhood have sought to engage with UK regulators, the FCA has clarified that prediction markets would fall under the Gambling Commission's jurisdiction, not as financial instruments. This classification complicates the entry of platforms like Polymarket, which rely on binary contracts tied to political and sporting events.

The Football Index case-where a platform offering virtual "shares" in footballers faced regulatory debates between the Gambling Commission and FCA- exemplifies the UK's regulatory ambiguity. Meanwhile, the Gambling Commission's chief executive, Andrew Rhodes, has called for a government-level discussion on crypto-based gambling, signaling broader concerns about blockchain's role in prediction markets. For investors, the UK's cautious approach suggests a high barrier to entry, with limited opportunities for scalable operations unless regulatory clarity emerges.

Asia: Over-Regulation, Political Tensions, and Illicit Markets

Asia's regulatory landscape is a mosaic of strict controls and emerging opportunities. In China, prediction markets face significant legal scrutiny. Macau's Gaming Law and Hong Kong's Gambling Ordinance prohibit most forms of gambling, with exceptions limited to state-sanctioned activities like horse racing. Platforms such as Polymarket risk criminal charges for users in China, where non-traditional betting is largely unregulated.

Japan's regulatory environment is equally complex. While the country has delayed its integrated resort (IR) rollout, it has intensified enforcement against online gambling, including crackdowns on influencers promoting illegal casinos. Meanwhile, Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA) is overhauling crypto regulations, which could indirectly impact prediction markets tied to digital assets. Political tensions with China- exacerbated by remarks from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Taiwan-have further complicated cross-border regulatory cooperation.

In contrast, Singapore has maintained regulatory stability, enhancing anti-money laundering (AML) compliance. However, over-regulation in countries like India and Indonesia has driven users to illicit markets dominated by organized crime. For investors, Asia's fragmented approach highlights the risks of over-regulation stifling innovation while creating opportunities in markets where legal frameworks are still evolving.

Investor Implications: Navigating the Crossroads

The regulatory crossroads facing prediction markets and political betting demand a nuanced investment strategy. In the U.S., investors must weigh the potential for federal preemption against state-level bans, while in the UK and Asia, the focus should be on regulatory clarity and the risks of over-regulation.

Opportunities exist in jurisdictions where frameworks are still forming, such as Pennsylvania's exploratory hearings or Singapore's stable AML policies. However, investors must also prepare for liquidity shocks, as seen in the 40% estimated risk of U.S. bans. Diversification across regions and asset classes-such as blockchain-based platforms or hybrid financial-gambling instruments-could mitigate these risks.

Ultimately, the sector's future will depend on how regulators resolve the tension between innovation and oversight. For now, investors must tread carefully, balancing the allure of high-growth markets with the reality of a legal landscape in flux.