Los cruces regulatorios de los mercados de predicción: Implicaciones para los inversores en Kalshi, Polymarket y Crypto.com

The prediction market sector has reached a pivotal inflection point in 2025, marked by a collision of explosive growth, regulatory scrutiny, and institutional adoption. Platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com are navigating a complex legal landscape where the line between federally regulated derivatives and unlicensed gambling remains contested. For investors, the stakes are high: regulatory clarity could unlock mainstream adoption, while enforcement actions risk stifling innovation. This analysis dissects the evolving regulatory dynamics and evaluates the resilience of these platforms in the face of mounting challenges.

Regulatory Developments: A Double-Edged Sword

Kalshi's 2024 victory over the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in a landmark court case positioned it as a trailblazer in the U.S. prediction market space. By the end of 2025, the platform reported weekly trading volumes exceeding $1 billion, driven by high-profile political and sports event contracts. However, this success has drawn ire from state regulators and tribal authorities, with Kalshi facing lawsuits in over 20 states over the legality of its sports betting-like contracts. The platform's legal battles-marked by mixed outcomes in jurisdictions like Nevada-highlight the sector's unresolved tensions between federal derivatives frameworks and state gambling laws.

Polymarket, meanwhile, adopted a more cautious approach. After a 2022 CFTC enforcement action, the platform secured a CFTC-registered exchange in 2025 and received approval to resume U.S. operations through a registered intermediary. This strategic pivot allowed Polymarket to scale its user base while mitigating regulatory friction, culminating in a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange at a $9 billion valuation.

Crypto.com's foray into prediction markets via its CFTC-regulated platform (CDNA) has positioned it as a regulatory "safe haven." The platform's legal clarity, tax efficiency, and deep liquidity have attracted institutional interest, with Crypto.com leveraging its regulatory compliance to differentiate itself in a crowded market.

Investor Risk Assessments: Growth vs. Legal Uncertainty

The sector's rapid expansion has been fueled by venture capital and institutional capital. Kalshi raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation, while Polymarket secured $205 million in early 2025 and later attracted a $2 billion investment. These figures underscore investor confidence in prediction markets as tools for information aggregation and risk management.

However, regulatory risks loom large. Kalshi's legal challenges, for instance, have created a "whack-a-mole" scenario where victories in one jurisdiction are offset by setbacks in another. Similarly, Crypto.com faced cease-and-desist orders from Tennessee and Connecticut regulators, reflecting the fragmented nature of U.S. oversight. For investors, the key question is whether platforms can scale sustainably while navigating this patchwork of rules.

Resilience metrics tell a nuanced story. Kalshi's 60% global market share and $50 billion in annualized trading volume demonstrate its dominance, but its reliance on litigation to defend operations introduces volatility. Polymarket's CFTC registration and blockchain-based infrastructure (e.g., Polymarket Chain's L1 blockchain) suggest a more defensible long-term strategy. Crypto.com's regulatory-first approach, meanwhile, has insulated it from many of the legal headwinds facing its peers.

The Path Forward: Navigating the Crossroads

For investors, the regulatory crossroads present both opportunities and hazards. Platforms that align with federal frameworks-like Polymarket and Crypto.com-are better positioned to weather enforcement actions and attract institutional capital. Conversely, those relying on litigation victories (e.g., Kalshi) face existential risks if courts rule against their business models.

The sector's future may hinge on a potential Supreme Court ruling, which could either clarify the legal status of prediction markets or deepen the regulatory ambiguity. In the interim, stablecoin adoption and blockchain infrastructure will remain critical to liquidity and scalability.

Conclusion

Prediction markets are at a defining moment. While Kalshi's aggressive expansion and Polymarket's regulatory pivot highlight divergent strategies, Crypto.com's compliance-driven approach offers a blueprint for sustainable growth. For investors, the lesson is clear: regulatory resilience-not just trading volume-will determine which platforms thrive in this high-stakes arena. As the sector matures, those who prioritize legal clarity and institutional partnerships will likely emerge as the long-term winners.