Sanciones regulatorias y el futuro de los mercados de predicción

The prediction market sector, once a niche experiment in crowd-sourced forecasting, has emerged as a $44 billion juggernaut in 2025, driven by platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com. Yet this explosive growth has collided with a regulatory crossroads. Tennessee's recent cease-and-desist orders against these platforms-demanding they halt sports-related contracts for state residents by January 31, 2026-highlight a broader conflict between federal derivatives oversight and state-level gambling laws according to reports. For investors, the question is no longer whether prediction markets can thrive, but how they will survive amid escalating legal and regulatory pressures.

The Tennessee Case: A Microcosm of Regulatory Tensions

Tennessee's actions against Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com are emblematic of a growing trend. The state's Sports Wagering Council (SWC) argues that these platforms violate the Tennessee Sports Gaming Act by offering unlicensed sports betting services. Despite federal registration with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the SWC insists that state law prevails, citing the absence of consumer protections like age verification and responsible gaming tools according to their analysis. The cease-and-desist orders demand voided contracts, refunded deposits, and a complete cessation of Tennessee operations, with penalties of up to $25,000 per violation.

This is not an isolated incident. Tennessee joins at least eight other states-Connecticut, Arizona, Illinois, Nevada, Maryland, New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania-in challenging prediction markets under state gambling statutes as reported. The core dispute hinges on whether event contracts (e.g., "Will Team A win?") are federally preempted derivatives or state-regulated wagers. Courts in Nevada and Maryland have already ruled against Kalshi, determining that sports contracts fall under state gaming laws, while the CFTC has signaled a more permissive stance under Acting Chair Caroline Pham according to regulatory analysis. This legal ambiguity creates a patchwork of compliance requirements, forcing platforms to navigate a labyrinth of state-specific rules.

Short-Term Risks: Compliance Costs and Operational Constraints

For investors, the immediate risks are twofold: financial penalties and operational restrictions. Tennessee's $25,000-per-violation fines could erode profit margins, particularly for platforms like Kalshi, where sports betting accounts for 90% of trading volume. Polymarket and Crypto.com face similar pressures, with Tennessee marking the first state-level cease-and-desist against Polymarket. Beyond fines, platforms must allocate resources to void contracts and refund deposits for Tennessee users-a logistical burden that could strain liquidity.

The broader regulatory landscape compounds these challenges. New York's Assembly Bill 9251, for instance, imposes age restrictions, deposit limits, and bans on sports and political markets as legislation outlines, while Pennsylvania's hearings signal a potential expansion of state oversight according to legislative reports. These developments force platforms to either exit key markets or invest heavily in compliance infrastructure, diluting growth potential.

Long-Term Opportunities: Institutional Adoption and Legal Clarity

Despite the short-term headwinds, the sector's long-term prospects remain compelling. Prediction markets have proven their value as real-time forecasting tools, outperforming traditional polls in high-stakes events like the 2024 U.S. presidential election and the 2025 German snap election. Institutional adoption is accelerating: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) invested $2 billion in Polymarket, and major media outlets like CNN and CNBC now integrate prediction market data into their coverage according to industry reports. These partnerships validate prediction markets as a legitimate asset class, with Citizens Bank projecting growth to a multitrillion-dollar market as institutional adoption increases according to market analysis.

The legal battles themselves could catalyze clarity. If courts rule that CFTC jurisdiction preempts state laws, as Polymarket and Kalshi argue according to legal analysis, the sector could see a regulatory reset. Conversely, a circuit split-where different courts reach conflicting conclusions-could force the issue to the Supreme Court, creating a definitive resolution. Either outcome would reduce uncertainty for investors, though the path to clarity is fraught with volatility.

Platform-Specific Dynamics: Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com

Each platform faces distinct challenges and opportunities. Kalshi, the most aggressive in defending its federal preemption claims, has faced adverse rulings in Nevada and Maryland. Its reliance on sports betting makes it particularly vulnerable to state-level crackdowns, yet its record trading volumes ($17.1 billion in 2025) underscore its market dominance according to Forbes data. Polymarket, meanwhile, has leveraged its $8 billion valuation and ICE partnership to navigate regulatory hurdles, including a CFTC-approved acquisition of QCEX as reported. Crypto.com's CDNA division, operating under CFTC oversight, offers a model of compliance that could serve as a benchmark for the sector according to their research.

Conclusion: Navigating the Regulatory Storm

The prediction market sector stands at a crossroads. Tennessee's actions reflect a broader regulatory assault that could fragment the market or force a legal reckoning. For investors, the key is to balance short-term risks-compliance costs, operational restrictions-with long-term opportunities: institutional adoption, data-driven forecasting, and potential regulatory clarity. Platforms that adapt swiftly, like Polymarket and Crypto.com, may emerge stronger, while those clinging to a federal-only strategy, like Kalshi, risk being sidelined.

As the sector evolves, one thing is clear: prediction markets are here to stay. The question is whether they will be shaped by state-level enforcement or federal preemption-and how investors position themselves to profit from the outcome.