La actualización de Regeneron para BofA: ¿Una simple reevaluación táctica o un verdadero catalizador?

The immediate catalyst is clear. Bank of America Securities has delivered a rare two-notch upgrade, moving Regeneron from a bearish "Underperform" to a bullish "Buy" rating. The firm simultaneously raised its price target to $860, implying an 11% upside from recent levels. This isn't a minor tweak; it's a strategic recalibration of the risk/reward setup.

Analysts cited a resolution of near-term overhangs and new visibility as the core drivers. Their prior concerns around the Eylea SD product line have largely been reflected in lower consensus estimates, removing a persistent cloud. More importantly, they are now more bullish on Eylea HD's potential following recent label updates, including a new every-four-week dosing regimen and approval for retinal vein occlusion. This shift in view is quantified in a new forecast for US Eylea franchise revenues of $4.35 billion in 2026, which surpasses the consensus of $3.86 billion.

The upgrade also hinges on a potential resolution to a major policy overhang. BofA noted that favorable developments related to Regeneron's discussions with the White House on most-favored-nation pricing could remove a significant drag on the shares. This combination-resolved commercial concerns, new product visibility, and a looming policy tailwind-creates a compelling tactical re-rating thesis. The firm's move signals that the stock's recent stagnation may be ending, as the fundamental story for 2026 appears to be improving.

The Mechanics: Resolved Overhangs and New Demand

The upgrade's logic hinges on specific, event-driven factors that BofA now sees as resolved or improving. First, the firm's prior bearish thesis was anchored in concerns over the Eylea SD product line. That overhang has now largely played out, as BofA notes its prior concerns around Eylea SD have largely been reflected in lower consensus estimates. This reset in expectations removes a persistent drag and allows the focus to shift decisively to the next generation of the franchise.

That shift is the second key catalyst. BofA is now more bullish on Eylea HD's potential in light of multiple label updates, including a new every-four-week dosing regimen and approval for retinal vein occlusion. Channel checks cited by the firm suggest this is moving the competitive needle, with larger practices ... may now favor HD over Vabysmo. The firm's new forecast for US Eylea franchise revenues of $4.35 billion in 2026 reflects this improved outlook and sits well above the consensus.

Finally, a major policy overhang is seen as a potential catalyst for a favorable outcome. BofA highlighted the possibility of favorable developments related to Regeneron's discussions with the White House on most-favored-nation pricing. The firm believes this upcoming policy decision could lift any remaining MFN overhang on the stock. This combination-resolved SD concerns, a stronger HD profile, and a looming policy tailwind-creates a multi-pronged re-rating thesis that BofA's upgrade is built upon.

The Financial Impact: Revenue Upside and Pipeline Catalysts

The upgraded thesis translates directly into quantifiable near-term revenue upside. BofA's model now calls for $4.35 billion in U.S. Eylea franchise revenues for 2026, a significant beat against the $3.86 billion consensus. This $490 million gap represents a major positive revision, driven by improved expectations for Eylea HD's competitive positioning and market uptake.

Beyond Eylea, Dupixent remains a powerful, steady engine. The analyst notes it continues to deliver growth across its established and newer indications. While BofA's 2026 Dupixent forecast of $20.7 billion aligns with consensus, the key point is the continued momentum that provides a reliable floor for overall sales and cash flow.

The next immediate catalyst is the company's own financial report. Regeneron is scheduled to report its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial and operating results on Friday, January 30, 2026. This earnings release will provide updated financials and, critically, guidance for the year ahead. It will be the first official data point from the company to assess whether the trajectory is indeed aligning with BofA's more bullish model.

For now, the setup is clear. The stock's re-rating is anchored by a revised top-line forecast for its core franchise and the continued strength of its blockbuster. The January 30 earnings report will be the first test of whether management confirms this improved path or introduces new uncertainties.

Catalysts and Risks: The Setup Ahead

The immediate event-driven timeline is now clear. The primary near-term catalyst is the company's own financial report. Regeneron is scheduled to report its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial and operating results on Friday, January 30, 2026. This earnings call will be the first official test of the revised trajectory. Management will discuss the updated Eylea and Dupixent outlooks, providing critical context for whether the bullish model is being validated from within.

Beyond the earnings report, the 2026 calendar is packed with potential inflection points. The first major pipeline catalyst is the Phase 3 melanoma readout for fianlimab, a LAG-3 antibody, expected in the first half of 2026. A positive result here could unlock a new commercial avenue. At the same time, a likely favorable outcome on Regeneron's MFN negotiations with the White House is seen as a potential policy tailwind that could remove a lingering overhang on the stock.

Yet a key risk remains on the regulatory front. The FDA's extended review for Eylea HD's expanded label, which was due in the fourth quarter of 2025, could still face further delays or setbacks. The agency extended the target action dates for the supplemental Biologics License Application seeking approval for both retinal vein occlusion and a monthly dosing regimen, citing a major amendment from a third-party manufacturing inspection. While Regeneron addressed the observations, the process is not yet complete. This regulatory uncertainty, though not a new development, represents a tangible risk to the timeline for realizing the full commercial upside of the label updates that are central to BofA's bullish thesis.