Red Violet Outlook: Mixed Signals and a Bearish Technical Outlook

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Despite a 7.15% price rise recently, Red Violet (RDVT.O) faces mixed fundamentals and bearish technical signals, suggesting caution for new investors.

News Highlights

Recent headlines include changes to U.S. vaccine policies under Robert F. Kennedy Jr., which could influence public health-related sectors. Meanwhile, Trump's recent policy moves—such as fast-tracking a uranium mine in Utah and new tariff announcements—highlight broader economic uncertainty. Additionally, REX Shares is navigating new SEC staking guidelines with proposed Ethereum and Solana ETFs, which may influence market sentiment in the crypto space.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

• Average Analyst Rating: 5.00 (simple mean).
• Weighted Rating (performance-adjusted): 0.00 — indicating poor historical accuracy.
• Consistency: Analysts are split, with only one "Strong Buy" rating from B. Riley Securities (Josh Nichols) in the last 20 days.
• Price vs. Sentiment: The stock is up 7.15%, but analyst expectations are pessimistic, showing a mismatch.

Fundamental Highlights:

• ROE: 10.16% (model score: 6.55 — strong but mixed with bearish technicals).
• EV/EBIT: 57.93 (model score: 6.55).
• Gross Profit Margin (GPM): 84.31% (model score: 6.55).
• Cash Flow from Operations (CFOA): 20.22% (model score: 6.55).
• Profit-to-Market Value: -48.46% (model score: 6.55).
• Price-to-Book (PB): 6.50 (model score: 6.55).

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money flows are showing strength: the overall inflow ratio is 0.50, with positive trends in all major fund-size categories (Large, Extra-large, and Block). Retail (Small) inflows, however, are negative, indicating caution among individual investors. This divergence suggests institutional optimism, but retail skepticism.

Key Technical Signals

• MACD Golden Cross: Internal diagnostic score 2.47 — weak bullish signal, with mixed historical returns.
• MACD Death Cross: Score 2.3 — bearish signal with negative historical returns.
• Williams %R Oversold: Score 6.38 — neutral to slightly bullish, but not strong enough to override bearish trends.
• Recent Indicators (Dec 9-18): Conflicting signals emerged: both Golden and Death Crosses were observed, along with an oversold reading, indicating a volatile and unclear direction.

Overall Technical Trend: Weak. The chart is showing more bearish than bullish signals (2 vs. 0), and technical indicators are scarce in the recent 5-day period, signaling a lack of clear direction.

Conclusion

With a technical score of 3.72 and a fundamental score of 6.55, Red Violet is in a tight spot. While the fundamentals aren’t terrible and institutional money is flowing in, the technicals are clearly bearish and suggest the stock should be approached with caution. Consider waiting for a clearer trend or a pullback before entering a position.