Recession Fears Surge 30% on Trump's Tariffs

Nearly half of the bettors on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction marketplace, now predict a U.S. recession in 2025. This prediction marks a significant increase from the 20% chance predicted at the start of the poll in January. The shift in sentiment comes after U.S. President Donald Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs, which sent shockwaves through global financial markets.

The tariffs, aimed at reducing American dependence on foreign goods and boosting domestic manufacturing, have been met with skepticism by financial markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted by 1,300 points on Thursday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experiencing declines of over 4% and 3%, respectively. The Budget Lab at Yale University estimates that the rise in price levels due to the tariffs could cost the average American consumer between $2,700 and $3,400 annually.

Trump's tariff policy has sparked concerns about broader economic consequences, including potential trade disruptions and increased living costs for consumers. Despite these concerns, Trump remains convinced that the tariff plan will succeed, even if it means American consumers face increased economic hardship. The grim economic outlook reflected in the Polymarket poll underscores the uncertainty and potential risks associated with the tariff policy.