RAYUSDT Market Overview: Range-Bound Volatility Amid Mixed Momentum

Summary
• Price traded in a range-bound pattern with intraday highs near 1.48 and lows near 1.367.
• Momentum shifted back and forth with RSI oscillating between overbought and oversold levels.
• Volume spiked during price breaks above key levels but lacked follow-through.
• A bearish divergence appeared in the late session, suggesting short-term caution.
• 20-EMA provided temporary support but failed to hold during a midday pullback.

Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) opened at 1.374 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and peaked at 1.483 before retreating to a low of 1.367. The price closed at 1.43 at 12:00 ET-1. Over 24 hours, the total volume was 4,502,005.3 and turnover amounted to approximately 6,436,395.6 USDT.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a range-bound pattern, with price oscillating between key resistance near 1.48–1.49 and support at 1.41–1.42. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the 04:15–04:30 ET session, signaling short-term weakness. A doji at 03:45 ET suggested indecision, while a bullish harami pattern at 02:45 ET hinted at a potential reversal that failed to materialize.

Moving Averages

The 20-EMA provided a dynamic support at 1.44–1.45 and held briefly before being pierced during a sharp 1.374 drop. The 50-EMA remained above that at 1.46–1.47, indicating the pair remains in a mixed short-term bias. On a daily time frame, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are converging but lack clarity, as volume failed to confirm a clear direction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed the signal line twice during the session—once bullish and once bearish—indicating mixed momentum. RSI oscillated between overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) levels, suggesting a volatile and choppy session. A bearish divergence emerged late in the session, hinting at a possible near-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion during the early afternoon, as volatility increased with price trading above the upper band. Later, the pair contracted back within the band, with price testing the lower boundary during a late-night pullback. The band width and standard deviations suggest that the market remains in a consolidation phase, with no clear breakout in sight.

Volume & Turnover

Volume saw a sharp increase during the early morning hours as the price broke above the 1.47–1.48 resistance, but failed to hold the breakout. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, confirming the price move, but then faded as the pair consolidated. Divergences between price and volume were observed late in the session, with price continuing down while volume waned, indicating weakening bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 1.367–1.483 swing, the 61.8% retracement level at ~1.44 marked a key support zone that was briefly tested but failed to hold. The 38.2% level at ~1.41–1.42 acted as a strong support, with the price bouncing from there twice. On a daily time frame, the 50% retracement of the longer-term swing remains a key watch level for possible continuation or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the mixed momentum and volatile structure observed in RAYUSDT, a MACD-based strategy could have provided valuable insights. However, due to the unavailability of the MACD data for the symbol, a reliable backtest cannot be conducted at this time. A future analysis would require the correct ticker symbol (e.g., “BINANCE:RAYUSDT”) or a validated data file. Once available, identifying golden and death crosses from 2022-01-01 would allow for evaluating buy/sell signals. This could offer a clearer understanding of historical performance and inform future strategy.