Raydium/Tether Market Overview (2025-10-09)

• Price declined from 2.895 to 2.691 amid high volume and bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD confirmed oversold conditions following a sharp bearish reversal.
• Key support at 2.66–2.67 held, with RSI showing potential near-term rebound.
• Volatility expanded through Bollinger Bands, with price near the lower band.
• Fibonacci levels indicate 2.69–2.73 as potential bounce zones.

At 12:00 ET on October 9, 2025, Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) opened at 2.817, reached a high of 2.898, and a low of 2.619, closing at 2.691. The 24-hour volume was 1,118,422.8 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $3,034,200.

The pair experienced a sharp bearish reversal over the past 48 hours, dropping nearly 7% in a single day amid increased volatility. The decline was characterized by a bearish breakout below key support at 2.66–2.67, followed by a temporary rejection at 2.63–2.64. A long lower shadow on the daily candle and a deep RSI oversold reading (below 25) suggest potential for a near-term bounce. On the 15-minute chart, the price tested 2.69–2.71 as a probable support cluster, with multiple bullish hammer patterns forming during the rebound.

On the 20/50 EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart, the short-term bearish bias remains intact, with the 50 EMA below the 20 EMA. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the selloff, with price near the lower band at the 24-hour close. This expansion suggests heightened volatility, while the RSI hovering near oversold territory (around 25) may indicate short-term buying pressure. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA lines are aligned bearishly, reinforcing the medium-term downtrend.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent 2.895–2.619 swing identified 2.69–2.73 as a 23.6%–38.2% retracement zone, which appears to be holding as a key bounce area. A break above this range may trigger a test of the 2.77–2.80 cluster, where multiple 15-minute doji and indecision patterns suggest possible resistance. On the downside, a failure to hold above 2.63–2.65 could lead to further momentum to 2.55–2.58. Traders should monitor volume and turnover dynamics for confirmation of trend exhaustion or continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy aims to identify potential reversal zones using a combination of RSI divergence and Fibonacci retracement levels. Specifically, it triggers a long position when RSI forms a bullish divergence (lower lows with higher RSI lows) while the price approaches a key Fibonacci retracement level (38.2% or 50%). Stop-loss is placed below the most recent swing low, with a take-profit at the nearest higher Fibonacci level. On the current RAYUSDT data, such a setup appears in the 2.63–2.66 range, where RSI has shown early signs of divergence and the price aligns with the 38.2% retracement level.