Rand Paul on Fox News: High oil prices will be a problem in the midterms, and if the conflict in Iran persists, I think you’re going to see a disastrous election.

Rising oil and gasoline prices linked to the ongoing conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran have intensified concerns about their political and economic implications ahead of the November midterm elections. Senator Rand Paul (R-Ky.) warned on Fox News that if the war persists, "you're going to see a disastrous election" for Republicans, citing the potential for high energy costs to sway voter sentiment. Data shows crude oil prices surged from $67 per barrel on February 28 to nearly $97 by March 10, while U.S. gas prices climbed 51 cents per gallon in a week, reaching $3.48.

The conflict has disrupted global energy infrastructure, including the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit hub for 20% of global oil and significant natural gas supplies. Analysts warn that prolonged disruptions could further strain markets, with some predicting gasoline prices could reach $3.50–$4.00 per gallon by next week. U.S. consumers, already burdened by cost-of-living pressures, have expressed frustration. Alma Newell, a California resident without work due to injury, noted that rising costs "stretch [her] already limited budget" according to consumer reports.

President Trump has dismissed concerns, claiming the price spike is a "very small price to pay for USA, and World, Safety and Peace" and asserting prices will drop once the war concludes. However, Republican lawmakers in competitive districts acknowledge the political risk, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune calling gas prices "a benchmark" for voter perceptions. The G7 has pledged to address energy supply shocks but has not yet authorized the release of strategic oil reserves. With public opposition to the war at 53% and oil infrastructure damage uncertain, the conflict's duration remains a key variable in shaping both market stability and electoral outcomes.