Radworks/Tether Market Overview for 2025-11-12

Summary
• Price declined from 0.435 to 0.424 amid bearish momentum.
• Volatility spiked mid-cycle with a 15-minute range of 0.027.
• Turnover surged on the 2045 ET candle amid a large volume bar.

RADUSDT opened at 0.434 (12:00 ET − 1), surged to 0.437, and closed at 0.424 (12:00 ET) after a pullback to 0.410. Total volume reached 150,585.7 units, with turnover of $64,589. The 24-hour period saw bearish momentum and volatile price swings.

The structure of the 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a clear bearish bias. A key support level appears to have formed around 0.410–0.412 following the large-volume candle at 2045 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible at 1730 ET, confirming a reversal from bullish to bearish sentiment. A doji formed at 2130 ET, indicating indecision after the sharp decline. These patterns suggest a potential short-term continuation of the bearish trend.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line in the afternoon, reinforcing the bearish outlook. On the daily chart, assuming a longer view, the 50/100/200-period lines appear aligned lower, with the price below all three, signaling a downtrend. The momentum indicators also reflect this: the MACD crossed into negative territory after 1800 ET, and the RSI hit oversold levels at 29.2, suggesting a possible short-term rebound but not a reversal.

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction from 1700–1800 ET before expanding sharply as the price moved from 0.435 to 0.410. Price closed near the lower band at 0.424, suggesting potential for a rebound. However, this should be confirmed by a strong close above 0.431–0.432, which marks the upper half of the 24-hour range. Fibonacci retracements show the 61.8% level at 0.421, which coincides with the 1900 ET candle, and the 38.2% at 0.426. A break below 0.410 may target the 0.400 level for further correction.

Volume and turnover peaked during the 2045 ET candle, with 150,585.7 units traded. This high volume confirmed the breakdown to 0.410. Notional turnover spiked to $64,589 across the 24-hour period, showing strong selling pressure. The price decline was accompanied by rising volume, which is a bearish confirmation. However, the lack of follow-through after the 2045 ET candle suggests some exhaustion in the bearish move, which could allow for a bounce in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing pattern detected in the 15-minute data at 1730 ET aligns with a key element of the proposed backtesting strategy, which seeks to identify and act on bearish reversal signals. Given that “HOLD.P” data was unavailable, the current 15-minute data for RADUSDT serves as an alternative to test the pattern’s effectiveness. The next step is to validate the signal using a larger historical dataset for Radworks/Tether. A backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-12 will be conducted using confirmed bearish engulfing signals, measuring the average return, win rate, and drawdowns. This will help determine whether the pattern reliably predicts short-term bearish reversals in Radworks/Tether’s price action.