Radian (RDN) Up 0.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Radian (RDN). Shares have added about 0.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Radian due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Radian Group Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Radian Group Q4 Earnings Top Estimates, MI Business Remains Strong

Radian Group reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted operating income of $1.16 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.5%. The bottom line improved 2.7% year over year.

Operating revenues increased 0.8% year over year to $302 million, driven by higher premiums earned and net investment income. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.1%.

The better-than-expected quarterly results benefited from solid performance in the Mortgage Insurance segment, higher primary mortgage insurance in force and growth in new insurance written, partially offset by higher expenses.

Q4 in Detail

Net premiums earned were $237 million, up 0.9% year over year. Net investment income rose 0.8% year over year to $62.7 million, supported by higher short-term investment balances, partially offset by securities and maturities.

MI's new insurance written increased 20.2% year over year to $15.9 billion.

Primary mortgage insurance in force rose 2.7% year over year to $282.5 billion, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.1%.

Persistency — the percentage of mortgage insurance remaining in force after 12 months — was 81.6% as of Dec. 31, 2025, down 110 basis points year over year.

Primary delinquent loans totaled 25,230 as of Dec. 31, 2025, up 5.9% year over year.

Total expenses increased 20.9% year over year to $99.5 million. The expense ratio improved 140 basis points year over year to 25.2%, reflecting enhanced operating leverage.

Financial Update

As of Dec. 31, 2025, Radian Group reported cash and cash equivalents of $24.8 million, up 29.2% year over year. Total assets declined 6.5% year over year to $8.1 billion.

The debt-to-capital ratio improved 40 basis points to 18.3%.

Book value per share rose 12.6% year over year to $35.29. Shareholders’ equity increased 3.4% year over year to $4.8 billion.

Adjusted net operating return on equity was 13.6%, down 110 basis points year over year.

As of Dec. 31, 2025, Radian Guaranty’s available assets under PMIERs totaled $5.4 billion, resulting in excess available assets of $1.6 billion.

Capital Deployment & Dividend Update

During 2025, the company returned $576 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. In the fourth quarter, Radian paid a quarterly dividend of 25.5 cents per share, totaling approximately $35 million.

Full-Year 2025 Highlights

Adjusted operating income was $4.45 per share, up 1.4% year over year, and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.7%.

Total operating revenues declined 1.1% year over year to $1.2 billion, which came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Net premiums earned were $942 million, up 0.3% year over year.

The loss ratio deteriorated 730 basis points year over year to 7.1%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted 8.93% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Radian has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. It comes with little surprise Radian has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

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Radian Group Inc. (RDN): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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