QuarkChain/Tether Market Overview (2025-10-09)

• QuarkChain/Tether (QKCUSDT) saw a 24-hour price range between $0.006011 and $0.006379, ending -1.07% lower at 12:00 ET.
• A sharp midday rally and afternoon sell-off highlight high volatility and mixed sentiment in the 15-minute timeframe.
• Volume spiked in the early afternoon and early evening, with the largest single candle at 16:15 ET (ET+2) seeing 16.9M in notional turnover.
• RSI and MACD showed overbought divergence in the morning before the price corrected sharply in the afternoon.
• Price found initial support near $0.006200, with a Fib 61.8% level at $0.006214 potentially holding in the near term.

Market Action and Key Levels

QuarkChain/Tether (QKCUSDT) opened at $0.006163 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as $0.006379 during the session before closing at $0.006237 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. Total volume was 93.67 million QKC, with notional turnover at $581,066.

The price action showed a bullish morning push from $0.00623 to over $0.00637, followed by a bearish reversal as buyers lost control after 14:00 ET. This suggests mixed market sentiment, with initial bullish momentum giving way to profit-taking and bearish momentum.

Key levels to watch include $0.006214 (Fib 61.8% support), $0.006281 (mid-range pivot), and $0.006309 (resistance from the 10:15 ET high). A doji formed at 08:00 ET, signaling indecision, while engulfing bearish candles emerged after 14:45 ET, indicating bearish control.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

The 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart show crossovers and divergences, with the 20 EMA briefly outpacing the 50 EMA during the morning rally before reversing below it during the afternoon sell-off. This reinforces the bearish reversal pattern.

On the MACD histogram, the bullish divergence in the morning was followed by a bearish crossover as the price dropped below the signal line, confirming the shift in momentum. The RSI reached 66.5 at the morning high, suggesting overbought conditions, followed by a sharp drop to 31.5, indicating oversold territory but not a strong enough move to trigger a reversal.

The Bollinger Bands reflected a volatility expansion in the afternoon, with price testing the lower band at $0.006208 before bouncing. This suggests accumulation near the lower range, but without strong follow-through, a break below the $0.006200 level could trigger further downside.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked at 16:15 ET and 07:15 ET, coinciding with significant price moves. The $0.006238–$0.006379 rally saw volume increase from 331k to 16.9M notional turnover, while the $0.006379–$0.006208 sell-off had 8.4M in turnover, suggesting strong bearish conviction.

Notable volume divergence occurred between 08:00 and 10:00 ET, where price continued higher with declining volume, a sign of losing bullish momentum. A bullish reversal attempt at 13:15 ET failed with low volume, indicating weak follow-through demand.

While the notional turnover was concentrated during the midday and early afternoon, the evening session saw a decline in both volume and volatility, suggesting traders are consolidating positions ahead of the next day’s moves.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the morning rally from $0.006214 to $0.006379, the key retracement levels include 38.2% at $0.006293, 50% at $0.006296, and 61.8% at $0.006299. The price found support at the Fib 61.8% level, which was tested twice and held during the afternoon sell-off.

On the daily chart, the Fib 50% retracement of the previous bullish wave is at $0.006224, with the 38.2% at $0.006262 acting as a pivot zone. A break below $0.006200 would target the next Fib level at $0.006172, suggesting a potential bearish scenario if short-term support fails.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy leverages 15-minute EMA crossovers (20/50) and MACD line/signal line divergence to enter trades, with Fib 61.8% and 38.2% levels as stop-loss and take-profit targets. Given the recent divergence in the morning and afternoon, a short position initiated on a bearish EMA crossover and confirmed by a bearish MACD crossover would have captured the afternoon decline.

The strategy appears viable in the current environment, where volatility and divergences are frequent. However, given the high volume and mixed RSI behavior, filtering trades with volume-weighted conditions and time-based filters (e.g., avoiding early morning trades) could improve signal-to-noise ratios.