Computación cuántica y Bitcoin: evaluación de riesgos, tiempo y preparación

The intersection of quantum computing and Bitcoin has emerged as one of the most pressing concerns for investors and technologists in 2025. While the threat of quantum attacks remains theoretical, the potential to undermine Bitcoin's cryptographic foundations has sparked urgent debates about timelines, preparedness, and strategic action. For investors, the question is no longer if quantum computing will disrupt Bitcoin, but when and how to prepare.

The Quantum Timeline: A Race Against Time

Bitcoin's security relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) and SHA-256, both of which are vulnerable to quantum attacks via Shor's algorithm, which could derive private keys from public keys according to the Human Rights Foundation. According to a report by the Human Rights Foundation, 6.51 million BTC-valued at approximately $188 billion are at risk from quantum attacks within the next five years, including 1.72 million BTC in early Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses according to the report. Experts at the July 2025 Presidio Bitcoin Quantum Summit echoed this urgency, estimating that quantum computers capable of breaking Bitcoin's encryption could emerge within 5–10 years.

However, timelines remain contested. Analysts like Charles Edwards warn of a 34%–55% chance that quantum computers could crack Bitcoin's security by 2028–2030. Conversely, developers like Jameson Lopp argue that a full transition to post-quantum security could take 5–10 years due to Bitcoin's decentralized governance model. This divergence underscores the uncertainty but highlights a critical window for action.

Post-Quantum Cryptography: Progress and Challenges

The Bitcoin ecosystem is actively exploring post-quantum cryptography (PQC) solutions to mitigate risks. BTQ Technologies has made a significant milestone by demonstrating a NIST-standardized quantum-resistant Bitcoin implementation using ML-DSA (Module-Lattice Digital Signature Algorithm) to replace vulnerable ECDSA signatures. The company plans a testnet launch in Q4 2025 and aims to secure the full network by 2026. Similarly, Starknet is integrating quantum-resistant STARK proofs, which rely on hash-based security and polynomial testing, offering inherent resilience against quantum threats.

Despite these advancements, implementing PQC in Bitcoin faces unique challenges. Larger key sizes and signatures could strain the network's scalability, while consensus-driven upgrades require coordination across a decentralized community. As noted by Jameson Lopp, even if quantum computers become viable, migrating funds to quantum-resistant addresses could take 5–10 years. This lag between technological readiness and implementation creates a critical risk window for investors.

Investor Preparedness: Strategies for a Pre-Quantum World

For investors, the key lies in balancing short-term pragmatism with long-term foresight. Institutional investors have maintained consistent net inflows into Bitcoin, reflecting confidence in its long-term value despite quantum risks. However, diversification and proactive security measures are increasingly recommended.

1. Transition to Quantum-Resistant Addresses: Investors holding BTC in vulnerable P2PK addresses are advised to migrate funds to newer SegWit or PQC-compatible addresses. While SegWit offers some protection against long-range attacks, quantum-resistant upgrades like BIP-360 remain in early development according to industry experts.
2. Liquidity and Hedging: Maintaining liquidity through crypto-to-fiat channels allows investors to respond swiftly to market volatility triggered by quantum-related fears. Analysts like Charles Edwards warn that a lack of quantum readiness by 2028 could push Bitcoin below $50,000, potentially triggering a prolonged bear market.
3. Monitoring Governance and Standards: Investors should track Bitcoin's governance debates and PQC standardization efforts, such as NIST's CRYSTALS-Kyber and Dilithium algorithms. Regulatory shifts, including post-quantum compliance mandates expected by 2026 will also shape the landscape.

The Path Forward: Balancing Caution and Optimism

While the quantum threat is real, it is not immediate. Michael Saylor and others argue that quantum computing could ultimately "harden" Bitcoin by accelerating the adoption of PQC solutions. However, this optimism hinges on the community's ability to act cohesively. As Starknet's modular design and BTQ's testnet progress demonstrate, the technical tools to future-proof Bitcoin exist. The challenge lies in governance and execution.

For investors, the lesson is clear: preparation begins now. By adopting quantum-resistant strategies, staying informed about PQC developments, and diversifying risk, investors can navigate the uncertainties of a pre-quantum world with confidence. The race against time is on-but with foresight, Bitcoin's resilience may yet outpace the quantum horizon.