Cómputo cuántico en 2026: burbujas, descubrimientos y oportunidades de compra

The quantum computing sector in 2026 stands at a crossroads. On one hand, it is a beacon of technological promise, with venture capital firms, corporate giants, and governments pouring billions into research and development. On the other, it is a landscape riddled with speculative valuations that often outpace tangible revenue or commercial applications. As investors weigh the sustainability of these valuations, the question looms: Are we witnessing a quantum leap-or a quantum bubble?

The Investment Hype: Capital and Confidence

Quantum computing has become a magnet for capital. In 2025 alone, the sector attracted $3.77 billion in funding across the first three quarters, a 128% year-over-year increase. Corporate venture arms, including those of Google, Intel, and Microsoft, are prioritizing long-term dominance, while startups like SandboxAQ and Quantum Machines secured $150 million and $170 million in funding, respectively. The most striking example is IonQ's $1.08 billion acquisition of Oxford Ionics, a move that underscores the sector's aggressive consolidation.

Public markets have also embraced the hype. IonQ's valuation soared to $22 billion in mid-October 2025, despite trailing revenue of just $20.7 million. Similarly, Quantum Computing Inc. trades at a P/S ratio of 3,144, a level typically associated with speculative frenzies. These valuations are justified by investors' optimism about quantum computing's potential to revolutionize fields like drug discovery, cryptography, and optimization. Yet, as one analyst notes, "The gap between current financials and future promise is widening, creating a precarious balance for investors."

Technical Progress: From NISQ to Commercial Viability

The sector's technological advancements are undeniable. Hardware innovations, such as Google's Willow chip and neutral-atom quantum systems are pushing beyond NISQ architectures toward fault-tolerant designs. Error correction-a long-standing bottleneck-is also seeing breakthroughs, with multi-layer code schemes advancing rapidly.

Software and hybrid systems are equally transformative. Quantum-as-a-Service (QaaS) platforms from IBM and Microsoft are democratizing access, while hybrid classical-quantum workflows are enabling practical applications in logistics and finance. For instance, pharmaceutical companies are leveraging quantum simulations to accelerate drug discovery, with some projects entering early-stage trials. Neutral-atom quantum systems, which operate at room temperature and scale more cost-effectively, are transitioning from labs to data centers, further reducing barriers to adoption.

Commercialization Timelines: Realism vs. Hype

Despite these strides, commercialization remains a distant horizon. Most quantum systems are still confined to specialized environments or cloud-based pilots. The shift to enterprise-grade applications-particularly in finance and pharma-requires overcoming challenges like data loading, algorithm design, and integration with classical systems.

In pharmaceuticals, quantum computing is expected to deliver value by 2036, with photonic quantum systems projected to generate $7 billion in revenue by then. Financial institutions, meanwhile, are experimenting with quantum-enhanced risk modeling and portfolio optimization, but widespread adoption is likely a decade away. Neutral-atom and photonic qubit technologies, though promising, still face hurdles in achieving fault tolerance and error correction.

Sustainability or Speculation? A Delicate Balance

The sustainability of quantum computing valuations hinges on two factors: technical progress and market discipline. On the positive side, government funding now accounts for 34% of total investment in 2025, signaling a strategic shift toward long-term infrastructure development. Japan's $7.4 billion and Spain's $900 million commitments, for example, reflect a global race to secure quantum leadership.

However, the sector's speculative nature persists. Public companies like D-Wave and QC Inc. are valued on potential rather than profitability, with D-Wave's €10 million system sale in 2025 offering a rare glimpse of commercial traction. Meanwhile, post-quantum cryptography firms like SEALSQ are leveraging cash reserves to position themselves in the quantum-safe encryption space.

Buy Opportunities: Where to Allocate Capital

For investors, the key lies in distinguishing between speculative plays and companies with clear commercialization paths. Late-stage startups like PsiQuantum and Quantinuum, which have secured government-backed funding and demonstrated scalable hardware, represent more sustainable opportunities. Conversely, early-stage firms with unproven business models and high P/S ratios carry significant risk.

Hybrid quantum-classical platforms and QaaS providers also offer compelling entry points. These companies, such as IBM and Microsoft, are less exposed to the volatility of pure-play quantum stocks while benefiting from the sector's long-term growth. Additionally, firms specializing in quantum-safe cryptography are well-positioned to capitalize on the urgent need for post-quantum security solutions.

Conclusion: A Sector in Transition

Quantum computing in 2026 is a tale of two narratives: one of transformative potential and another of speculative excess. While the sector's technological progress is undeniable, its valuations remain a mixed bag. Investors must navigate this duality with caution, prioritizing companies that balance innovation with commercial viability. As the industry transitions from research to enterprise adoption, those who can discern the signal from the noise will be best positioned to reap the rewards of this quantum leap.