Computación cuántica en 2026: ¿La burbuja estalla o llega la revolución?

The quantum computing sector has captivated investors with promises of revolutionary advancements, but as 2026 unfolds, the question looms: Is this the dawn of a breakthrough-or the unraveling of a speculative bubble? For pure-play stocks like IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), and Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT), the answer hinges on valuation sustainability, commercial progress, and the looming threat from Big Tech giants.

Insider Selling: A Red Flag or Prudent Hedging?

Insider selling trends at these companies paint a troubling picture. Over the past five years, insiders have collectively sold nearly $926 million in shares, with IonQ alone accounting for $574 million in net sales. Rigetti and D-Wave followed with $54 million and $264 million, respectively according to financial reports. Such activity, particularly when paired with minimal insider buying, signals skepticism about long-term value. For example, Rigetti and QC Inc. reported negligible insider purchases, suggesting executives and board members view their shares as overvalued. This pattern mirrors the dot-com era, where insider selling often preceded market corrections.

Valuation Risks: P/S Ratios in the Bubble Zone

The price-to-sales (P/S) ratios of these stocks are alarmingly high. IonQ trades at a P/S ratio of 146, while Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) has a staggering P/S ratio of nearly 2,900, despite generating just $384,000 in revenue in the last quarter. These valuations far exceed historical thresholds. During the dot-com bubble, eBay peaked at a P/S ratio of 171, yet even that pales in comparison to QUBT's metrics. Analysts warn that unless these companies achieve exponential revenue growth-unlikely given their current financials-these valuations are unsustainable.

For context, IonQ reported $20.7 million in Q2 2025 revenue and projects $82–$100 million for the full year, but its $19 billion market cap implies a P/S ratio of 190. D-Wave, with $22 million in trailing-twelve-month revenue, trades at a P/S ratio of 400 according to financial analysis. These metrics suggest investors are pricing in future dominance rather than present capabilities-a dangerous precedent.

Commercial Progress: Hype vs. Reality

Despite the lofty valuations, commercial progress remains nascent. IonQ's trapped-ion technology and its $1.6 billion in cash reserves have fueled optimism, but its operating loss of $405 million on $68 million in revenue highlights the gap between promise and profitability. D-Wave's quantum annealing systems have secured niche contracts, such as a €10 million European sale, yet its $8.8 billion market cap rests on speculative growth. Rigetti, with its $1.8 million in quarterly revenue and $571 million in cash, struggles with technical hurdles in coherence and gate fidelity according to industry analysis.

Quantum Computing Inc., focused on photonic technology, faces an uphill battle. Its $349 million in cash post-raise contrasts sharply with just $0.26 million in trailing revenue, and its high short interest and Beta of over 3.0 make it a volatile play. Collectively, these firms remain pre-profit, with financial runway and cash burn rates critical to their survival according to financial reports.

Big Tech's Quantum Gambit: A Looming Threat

The real wildcard is Big Tech's accelerating investments. IBM's roadmap includes a fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029, with the Kookaburra processor (1,386 qubits) and Nighthawk (120-qubit square lattice) advancing its modular approach according to industry analysis. Alphabet's TPUs are already displacing Nvidia GPUs in AI workloads, with a $155 billion order backlog, while Microsoft's Azure Quantum platform and topological qubit research position it as a long-term contender.

These giants treat quantum computing as a strategic R&D pillar, not a standalone business. IBM's $10 billion partnership with JPMorgan Chase and Microsoft's $1 billion R&D budget dwarf the resources of pure-plays. Alphabet's quantum strategy, though less publicized, benefits from its vast infrastructure and cloud partnerships. For investors, this raises a critical question: Can niche players like IonQ or D-Wave compete with the scale and patience of Big Tech?

The Verdict: Bubble or Breakthrough?

The quantum computing sector is at a crossroads. While technological milestones-such as IBM's 1,121-qubit Condor processor-signal progress, the current valuations of pure-plays appear disconnected from reality. Insider selling, unsustainable P/S ratios, and weak financial performance all point to a bubble. However, the sector's long-term potential cannot be dismissed outright.

For now, the risks outweigh the rewards. Investors should treat these stocks as speculative bets, with a focus on diversification and risk management. As one analyst put it, "The quantum computing race is still in its infancy, but the market has priced in a finish line that doesn't yet exist." According to market analysis.