Quant/Bitcoin Market Overview

Summary
• QNTBTC declined 1.03% over the past 24 hours, closing near a key support level.
• Price tested key Fibonacci levels and formed a potential bearish continuation pattern.
• Volume dipped after a morning sell-off, signaling weak conviction in the recent move lower.

Price Action and Structure

Quant/Bitcoin (QNTBTC) opened at 0.000833 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0007937 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET. During the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of 0.000841 and a low of 0.0007904. Total trading volume was 217.199, translating to a notional turnover of $171.42. A bearish descending triangle formation emerged during the session, suggesting further consolidation or a breakdown is likely. Key support appears to be forming at the 0.0007922 level, with 0.0007937 and 0.0007967 as immediate resistance targets.

Technical Indicators and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover, while the 50/200 daily MA also indicates a longer-term downtrend. The RSI has moved into oversold territory, signaling a potential bounce, though the MACD histogram remains bearish with no sign of a bullish crossover. Volatility, as measured by the 20-period Bollinger Bands, has widened in the late session, indicating increased uncertainty. Price remains near the lower band, which could offer a floor or trigger a rebound.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked early in the session as the price broke below 0.000833, reaching 6.255 units in one 15-minute interval. This was followed by a sharp decline in volume as the price continued lower without significant follow-through. The lack of volume in the latter half of the session suggests weak conviction in the bearish move. A divergence between price and volume could indicate a potential reversal, though it is still too early to confirm.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest involves opening a short position at each MACD death-cross and closing it at the next golden-cross. This strategy assumes that bearish momentum will dominate, especially during periods of low volume and oversold conditions. However, without stop-loss or time constraints, this approach is exposed to large drawdowns if a sudden reversal occurs. A more robust backtest would incorporate a 2% stop-loss and a 5% take-profit level, with a maximum holding period of 3 days. Running this refined version would better simulate real-world trading behavior and risk management.